Hurricane Agatha rapidly intensified to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Sunday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Agatha was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 98.7°W which put it about 185 miles (290 km) southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Agatha was moving toward the northeast at 1 m.p.h. (2 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Salina Cruz to Barra de Tonala. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado and from Salina Cruz to Boca de Pijijiapan, Mexico.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane found that Hurricane Agatha had rapidly intensified to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Sunday afternoon. A small circular eye formed at the center of Hurricane Agatha. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Agatha. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Agatha was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Agatha’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Agatha was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.4.

Hurricane Agatha will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Agatha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Agatha is likely to intensify during the next 18 hours. An upper level trough over Baja California will approach Hurricane Agatha on Monday. The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Agatha’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. More wind shear will make the environment less favorable for intensification.

Hurricane Agatha will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Central America and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Agatha toward the northeast on Sunday night. The upper level trough over Baja California will steer Agatha toward the northeast more quickly on Monday. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Agatha will move approach the coast of Mexico near Puerto Escondido and Puerto Angel during the middle of Monday. Agatha could be a major hurricane when it nears the coast of Mexico. Hurricane Agatha will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Oaxaca. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Agatha could produce a storm surge of ten feet (three meters) along portions of the coast of Oaxaca. Hurricane Agatha could cause localized major damage.