Tag Archives: Chiapas

Tropical Depression Agatha Drops Heavy Rain on Southern Mexico

Former Hurricane Agatha dropped heavy rain on southern Mexico on Tuesday. Agatha weakened to a tropical depression on Tuesday morning as it moved farther inland over southern Mexico. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Agatha was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 95.3°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) north of Salina Cruz, Mexico. Agatha was moving toward the northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Depression Agatha dropped heavy rain on parts of Oaxaca, Chiapas, Veracruz and Tabasco on Tuesday morning. The lower levels of the circulation of former Hurricane Agatha weakened steadily on Tuesday as it moved farther inland over south Mexico. However, the circulation in the middle and upper levels of Agatha remained well organized. Microwave satellite images showed a well defined center of circulation in the middle levels. Bands of strong thunderstorms were present in the eastern half of Tropical Depression Agatha. Those bands were dropping locally heavy rain over parts of southern Mexico. Bands in the western half of Agatha’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

An upper level trough over northern Mexico will steer the middle and upper parts of Tropical Depression Agatha toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. Bands in the eastern half of Agatha will continue to drop locally heavy rain over southern Mexico, the Yuacatan Peninsula and parts of Honduras. The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. The middle and upper parts of Tropical Depression Agatha could emerge over the Bay of Campeche or Northwestern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday or Thursday. The remnants of Agatha could contribute to the formation of a tropical cyclone or subtropical cyclone later this week.

Hurricane Agatha Nears Southern Mexico

Hurricane Agatha neared southern Mexico on Monday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Agatha was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 97.3°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Agatha was moving toward the northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Salina Cruz to Barra de Tonala. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado and from Salina Cruz to Boca de Pijijiapan, Mexico.

Hurricane Agatha did not change much during Sunday night. A small circular eye was present at the center of Hurricane Agatha. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Agatha. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Agatha was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Agatha’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Agatha was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.5. The intensity of Hurricane Agatha was the same as the intensity of Hurricane Sally when Sally hit northwest Florida in 2020. Agatha was smaller than Sally was.

Hurricane Agatha will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Agatha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Agatha could strengthen a little before it reaches Mexico. An upper level trough over Baja California will approach Agatha as the hurricane makes landfall on the coast of Mexico. The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Agatha’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. More wind shear will make the environment less favorable for intensification. The circulation around Hurricane Agatha could pull drier air over Mexico into the western part of Agatha. More vertical wind shear and drier air could cause Hurricane Agatha to start to weaken just prior to landfall.

The upper level trough over Baja California will steer Agatha toward the northeast more quickly on Monday. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Agatha will make landfall on the coast of Mexico near Puerto Escondido and Puerto Angel in a few hours. Hurricane Agatha will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Oaxaca and Chiapas. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Agatha could produce a storm surge of ten feet (three meters) along portions of the coast of Oaxaca. Hurricane Agatha could cause localized serious damage.

Tropical Low Pressure System Will Drop Heavy Rain on Southern Mexico

A tropical low pressure system designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E by the National Hurricane Center will drop heavy rain on parts of southern Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 93.4°W which put it about 210 miles (340 km) southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was1005 mb.

The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Barra de Tonala to Puerto Escondido.

A large low pressure system moved slowly from the western Caribbean Sea into the extreme Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Guatemala during the past few days.  The low pressure system dropped heavy rain over parts of Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala and Belize.  Several smaller centers of circulation developed within the larger low pressure system on Tuesday.  More thunderstorms developed around one of the smaller centers west of Guatemala on Tuesday evening and the sustained wind speed increased to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h).  Some bands of showers and thunderstorms were beginning to develop around the low pressure system.  A potential primary rainband appeared to be wrapping around the western and southern portions of the center of circulation.

The low pressure system will move through an environment favorable for some intensification on Wednesday.  The low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29.5°C.  An upper level high over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will produce northeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the low pressure system.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification.  The low pressure system will be close to the coast of Mexico, which will also limit intensification.  The low pressure system could intensify while the center is over the warm water.  It is forecast to become a tropical storm on Wednesday, which is why the Tropical Storm Watch was issued.

A high pressure system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Caribbean Sea will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E toward the northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the low pressure system could make landfall on the coast of Mexico between Barra de Tonala and Puerto Escondido within 24 hours.  It will bring gusty winds to that portion of the coast.  The low pressure system will drop heavy rain on parts of Chiapas and Oaxaca.  It could cause flash floods in some locations.