Tag Archives: Tropical Depression Eleven-E

Tropical Depression Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Depression Eleven-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located at latitude 18.9°N and longitude 110.5°W which put it about 280 miles (450 km) south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. The tropical depression was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a low pressure system south of Baja California on Thursday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Eleven-E. The circulation around Tropical Depression Eleven-E was large. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the tropical depression. Thunderstorms that develop near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Eleven-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. The large circulation around the tropical depression could prevent it from intensifying quickly.

Tropical Depression Eleven-E will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico. The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Eleven-E will move parallel to the southwest coast of Baja California.

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forms West of Mexico

Tropical Depression Eleven-E formed west of Mexico on Friday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located at latitude 17.7°N and longitude 109.2°W which put it about 335 miles (535 km) west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  The depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Depression Eleven-E is not particularly well organized.  The depression does have a distinct center of circulation which can be seen on visible satellite images.  Most of the showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the western half of the circulation.  The rainbands east of the center of circulation are thin and consist mainly of lighter showers.  The thunderstorms west of the center of circulation are generating only a little upper level divergence which is carrying mass to the west of the depression.

Tropical Depression Eleven-E is in an environment that is only marginally favorable for intensification.  The depression is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  So, there is sufficient energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  However, an upper level ridge centered over northern Mexico is producing strong northeasterly winds which are blowing across the top of the depression.  Those winds are causing significant vertical wind shear.  The shear is probably the reason for the asymmetrical pattern with all of the thunderstorms in the western half of the circulation.  The shear is forecast to continue and if it does, there will be little or no intensification.  If the shear is less, then some intensification could occur.

Tropical Depression Eleven-E is being steered to the west-northwest by the ridge to its north.  A general west-northwesterly motion is forecast to continue for the next several days.  If the vertical wind shear increases and the depression weakens to a low level system, then winds closer to the surface would steer it more toward the west.  On its anticipated track the depression is expected to move away from Mexico.