Tag Archives: EP11

Tropical Depression Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Depression Eleven-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Tuesday afternoon.  A Tropical Storm Warning and a Tropical Storm Watch were issued for portions of the coast of Mexico.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 94.6°W which put the center about 85 miles (135 km) south-southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexoco.  The tropical depression was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Angel to Boca de Pijijiapan, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca de Pijijiapan to the Mexico/Guatemala border.

A low pressure system over the Gulf of Tehuantepec strengthened on Tuesday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Eleven-E.  A distinct low level center of circulation was evident on visible satellite images.  The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of the tropical depression.  There were also thunderstorms in bands in the eastern periphery of the circulation around Tropical Depression Eleven-E.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Eleven-E will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical depression.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent some intensification.  Tropical Depression Eleven-E is likely to intensify to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Eleven-E will move around the eastern side of a trough of low pressure that extended from central Mexico to the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The trough of low pressure will steer the tropical depression slowly toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E will make landfall on the coast of Mexico near Salina Cruz in about 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Eleven-E is likely to be a tropical storm when it makes landfall on the south coast of Mexico.  It will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Oaxaca and Chiapas.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Jova Weakens to a Tropical Storm

Former Hurricane Jova weakened to a tropical storm over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Baja California during Friday night. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Jova was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 124.6°W which put it about 945 miles (1520 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California. Jova was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Former Category 5 Hurricane Jova weakened to a tropical storm over cooler water during Friday night. Even though Jova weakened to a tropical storm, its circulation was well organized. Tropical Storm Jova completed an eyewall replacement cycle as it moved over cooler water. The original inner eye and eyewall dissipated. The outer eyewall surrounded a clear area at the center of Jova’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Tropical Storm Jova. The thunderstorms did not rise as high in the atmosphere because of the cooler water at the surface of ocean. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Jova’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Jova will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Jova will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Jova will continue to weaken gradually over cooler water, even though there will be little vertical wind shear. Jova could weaken to a tropical depression by the end of the weekend.

Tropical Storm Jova will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Jova toward the west-northwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Jova will move farther away from Baja California.

Hurricane Jova Weakens Southwest of Baja California

Hurricane Jova weakened over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Thursday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Jova was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 118.6°W which put it about 645 miles (1040 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Jova was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

Hurricane Jova started an eyewall replacement cycle on Thursday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the original eye and eyewall. A larger outer eyewall surrounded the original eye and eyewall. The inner eyewall, which was where the strongest winds were, began to weaken after the outer eyewall developed. The inner eyewall was still evident on microwave satellite images on Thursday night. A larger clear area, sometimes called a moat, was between the inner eyewall and the outer eyewall. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the two concentric eyewalls.

Hurricane Jova started to weaken as the eyewall replacement cycle progressed. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Jova’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.0.

Hurricane Jova will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jova will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are cooler than 26°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Jova will weaken during the next 24 hours as the inner eyewall dissipates. Jova will weaken more quickly when it moves over cooler water.

Hurricane Jova will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Jova toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Jova will move farther away from Baja California.

Hurricane Jova Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 5

Hurricane Jova rapidly intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Wednesday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Jova was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 113.0°W which put it about 535 miles (865 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Jova was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 929 mb.

Hurricane Jova intensified from a tropical depression to a Category 5 hurricane in 48 hours. A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) formed at the center of Jova’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Jova. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane. The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Jova increased as Jova rapidly intensified. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Jova’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 35.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.0.

Hurricane Jova will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Jova will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Jova could continue to intensify during the next 12 hours. The inner end of a rainband appeared to be wrapping around the existing eye and eyewall in the core of Jova’s circulation. If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle will cause Hurricane Jova to weaken on Thursday. Jova will move over cooler water on Friday, which will also cause it to weaken.

Hurricane Jova will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Jova toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Jova will stay far to the southwest of Baja California.

Jova Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Jova rapidly intensified to a major hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Wednesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Jova was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 111.7°W which put it about 565 miles (910 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Jova was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.

Hurricane Jova intensified very rapidly to a major hurricane on Wednesday. A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) formed at the center of Jova’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Jova. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane. The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

Hurricane Jova rapidly intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Jova’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.5.

Hurricane Jova will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jova will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Jova will intensify during the next 24 hours. Jova could strengthen to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Jova will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Jova toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Jova will stay far to the southwest of Baja California.

Jova Rapidly Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Jova rapidly intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California during Tuesday night. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Jova was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 109.6°W which put it about 640 miles (1035 km) southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. Jova was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

The maximum sustained wind speed in former Tropical Storm Jova increased 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) during the past 24 hours. The inner end of a rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of Hurricane Jova. The strongest winds were occurring in the inner end of the rainband. A small circular eye was starting to appear on microwave satellite images. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Jova. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (20 km) from the center of Jova’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Jova will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Jova will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jova’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Jova will intensify during the next 36 hours. Jova is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane by Wednesday.

Hurricane Jova will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Jova toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Jova will stay far to the southwest of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Jova Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Storm Jova formed south of Mexico on Monday night. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Jova was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 106.9°W which put it about 725 miles (1165 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. Jova was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico strengthened during Monday night and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Jova. The circulation around Jova was still organizing on Tuesday morning. It was difficult to see the surface center of Tropical Storm Jova on infrared satellite images. More thunderstorms were developing in bands revolving around the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Jova’s circulation. The winds in the other parts of Tropical Storm Jova were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Jova will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Jova will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jova’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Jova will intensify during the next 36 hours. Jova could strengthen to a hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Jova will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Jova toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Jova will move farther away from the west coast of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Kay Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Storm Kay formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Sunday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Kay was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 102.5°W which put it about 225 miles (365 km) southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Kay was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

An area of low pressure over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico strengthened on Sunday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Kay. There was a large counterclockwise circulation revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Kay. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Kay’s circulation, but there were not many thunderstorms close to the center. The strongest rainbands were in the southern half of Tropical Storm Kay. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Kay. The winds in the other parts of Kay’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Kay will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Kay will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Kay will intensify during the next 36 hours, but the rate of intensification could be slow because of the large size of the circulation. The rate of intensification could speed up when more thunderstorms form near the center of Kay and an inner core develops. Tropical Storm Kay could strengthen to a hurricane within 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Kay will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Kay toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Kay will move parallel to the west coast of Mexico. Kay could move more toward the north-northwest when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system on Tuesday. Kay could approach Baja California on Wednesday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Javier moved farther away from Baja California. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Javier was located at latitude 27.2°N and longitude 121.0°W which put it about 380 miles (610 km) west of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Javier was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Javier Moves West of Baja California

Tropical Storm Javier moved west of Baja California on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Javier was located at latitude 26.0°N and longitude 116.1°W which put it about 140 miles (225 km) south-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Javier was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto San Andresito to Punta Eugenia, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Javier started to weaken on Saturday afternoon when it moved over colder water west of Baja California. The center of Javier moved over water where over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25˚C. Most of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Javier weakened when it moved over colder water. The bands revolving around the center of Javier’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northern half of Tropical Storm Javier. Winds in the southern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Javier will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next few days. Javier will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Even though there will be little vertical wind shear, Tropical Storm Javier will be unable to extract enough energy for the ocean to intensify. Javier is likely to weaken gradually during the next few days.

Since most of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Javier weakened, Javier will be steered by the winds lower in the atmosphere. Javier will move south of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Javier toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Javier will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Strengthens to Tropical Storm Javier

Former Tropical Depression Eleven-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Javier over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Thursday night. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Javier was located at latitude 19.9°N and longitude 111.7°W which put it about 235 miles (380 km) south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Javier was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Thunderstorms became more concentrated near the center of former Tropical Depression Eleven-E on Thursday night and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Javier. The circulation around Tropical Storm Javier was still large. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Javier’s circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Javier.

Tropical Storm Javier will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Javier is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours. The large circulation around Javier could prevent it from intensifying quickly.

Tropical Storm Javier will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Javier toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Javier will move parallel to the southwest coast of Baja California.