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Tropical Depression Celia Passes South of Guatemala

Tropical Depression Celia passed south of Guatemala on Sunday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Celia was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 92.4°W which put it about 130 miles (210 km) southwest of Puerto San Jose, Guatemala. Celia was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Depression Celia weakened during the weekend. A few thunderstorms formed near the center of Celia, but most of the circulation consisted of bands of showers and lower clouds. An upper level ridge over southeastern Mexico produced easterly winds that blew across the top of Tropical Depression Celia. Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms that started to develop in Tropical Depression Celia.

Tropical Depression Celia will move through an environment mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Celia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level ridge over southeastern Mexico will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will prevent intensification during the next day or so. Tropical Depression Celia will move into an area where the upper level winds are weaker early next week. That will cause the vertical wind shear to diminish. Tropical Depression Celia could strengthen when the shear diminishes.

Tropical Depression Celia will move south of a high pressure system over Mexico during the next 48 hours. The high pressure system will to steer Celia toward the west. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Celia will move parallel to the south coast of Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Blas weakened south of Baja California. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Blas was located at latitude 19.0°N and longitude 113.0°W which put it about 335 miles (540 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Blas was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Depression Three-E Strengthens to Tropical Storm Celia

Former Tropical Depression Three-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Celia over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of El Salvador on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located at latitude 11.6°N and longitude 89.3°W which put it about 145 miles (235 km) south of San Salvador, El Salvador. Celia was moving toward the north-northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Three-E strengthened on Friday morning and the National Hurricane Center upgraded it to Tropical Storm Celia. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Tropical Storm Celia. Bands in the eastern half of Celia’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The thunderstorms in the western half of the circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The circulation around Tropical Storm Celia was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Celia.

Tropical Storm Celia will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Celia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Celia could strengthen gradually during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Celia will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 18 hours. A broad area of low pressure over Central America and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will steer Celia slowly toward the north during the next 18 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Celia will move slowly closer to El Salvador. Rainbands in the northern fringes of Celia could drop heavy rain over parts of El Salvador and Guatemala. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. A high pressure system will strengthen over Mexico during the weekend. The high pressure system is likely to steer Tropical Storm Celia toward the west.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Blas strengthened a little as it moved away from the southwest coast of Mexico. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Blas was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 109.0°W which put it about 320 miles (515 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Blas was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Depression Three-E Forms South of El Salvador

Tropical Depression Three-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of El Salvador on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Three-E was located at latitude 10.8°N and longitude 89.9°W which put it about 205 miles (330 km) south-southwest of San Salvador, El Salvador. The tropical depression was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of El Salvador strengthened on Thursday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Three-E. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center of Tropical Depression Three-E. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the depression. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Three-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Depression Three-E is very likely to strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Three-E will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours. A broad area of low pressure over Central America and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will steer the tropical depression slowly toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Three-E will move slowly closer to El Salvador. Rainbands in the northern fringes of the tropical depression could drop heavy rain over parts of El Salvador and Guatemala. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Blas churned southwest of Mexico. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Blas was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 105.6°W which put it about 210 miles (340 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Blas was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Blas Rapidly Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Blas rapidly intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Blas was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 102.8°W which put it about 300 miles (485 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Blas was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Blas rapidly intensified during the past 24 hours and Blas reached hurricane intensity on Wednesday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Hurricane Blas and a small eye was apparent on microwave satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Blas. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions. The circulation around Blas was small. Hurricane force winds extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of circulation. Tropical storm force winds extended out 45 miles from the center.

Hurricane Blas will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Blas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Blas will strengthen during the next 24 hours. Blas could continue to intensify rapidly since an inner core has formed.

Hurricane Blas will move south of the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico during the next several days. The high pressure system will steer Blas toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track Hurricane Blas will move slowly away from the west coast of Mexico during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Two-E Strengthens to Tropical Storm Blas

Former Tropical Depression Two-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Blas over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico on Tuesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Blas was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 102.1°W which put it about 380 miles (615 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Blas was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Blas intensified on Tuesday morning. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Blas. Thunderstorms were also forming in bands in the southern half of Tropical Storm Blas. Bands in the northern half of Blas consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Blas.

Tropical Storm Blas will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Blas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Blas will intensify during the next 48 hours. It could strengthen to a hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Blas will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours. It will move slowly toward the north during that time. The western end of a high pressure system will extend over Mexico on Wednesday. The high pressure system will start to steer Blas toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Blas will move away from the west coast of Mexico later this week.

Tropical Depression Two-E Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Depression Two-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Monday night. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Two-E was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 102.4°W which put it about 395 miles (635 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. The tropical depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

More thunderstorms developed around the center of a low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Monday night and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Two-E. The circulation around Tropical Depression Two-E was gradually becoming more organized. Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of the depression and in bands in the southern half of the circulation. Bands in the northern half of Tropical Depression Two-E consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Two-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Depression Two-E is likely to intensify to a tropical storm on Tuesday. It could strengthen to a hurricane within 48 hours.

Tropical Depression Two-E will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours. It will move slowly and erratically during that time. The western end of a high pressure system will extend over Mexico on Wednesday. The high pressure system will start to steer Tropical Depression Two-E toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Two-E will move away from the west coast of Mexico later this week.

Tropical Storm Blanca Weakens South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Blanca weakened south of Baja California on Tuesday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Blanca was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 110.9°W which put it about 570 miles (915 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California. Blanca was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

After reaching its maximum intensity on Monday night when the sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h), Tropical Storm Blanca weakened on Tuesday afternoon. An upper level trough west of Baja California produced moderate southwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Blanca’s circulation. Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear and the shear caused Tropical Storm Blanca to weaken. The vertical wind shear also caused an asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms around Blanca. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Blanca. Bands in the western half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Blanca.

Tropical Storm Blanca will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Blanca will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However the upper level trough west of Baja California will cause strong vertical wind shear and the wind shear will cause Blanca to weaken. Tropical Storm Blanca could weaken to a tropical depression in a day or two.

Tropical Storm Blanca will move around the southern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Blanca toward the west-northwest during the next two days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Blanca will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Storm Blanca Develops Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Storm Blanca developed southwest of Mexico on Monday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Blanca was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 108.9°W which put it about 520 miles (840 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Blanca was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Former Tropical Depression Two-E strengthened on Monday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center named the system Tropical Storm Blanca. The circulation around Blanca organized quickly on Monday. More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The circulation around Tropical Storm Blanca was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles from the center of Blanca.

Tropical Storm Blanca will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Blanca will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Blanca will intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Blanca will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Blanca toward the west-northwest during the next two days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Blanca will move away from Mexico.

Tropical Storm Amanda Drops Heavy Rain on Guatemala and El Salvador

Tropical Storm Amanda dropped heavy rain on parts of Guatemala and El Salvador on Sunday.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Amanda was located at latitude 14.2°N and longitude 90.4°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) south-southeast of Guatemala City, Guatemala.  Amanda was moving toward the north-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings remained in effect for the entire coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Two-E strengthened on Sunday morning as it approached the coast of Guatemala and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Amanda.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) on the eastern side of Amanda.  Winds on the western side of the circulation were mostly less than tropical storm force.

The heaviest rain in Tropical Storm Amanda was falling near the center of circulation and in bands on the eastern side of the circulation.  Tropical Storm Amanda was located on the eastern side of a much larger counterclockwise circulation that is sometimes called a Central American Gyre (CAG).  The CAG will steer Amanda toward the north during the next 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Amanda will move across Guatemala toward the southern Yucatan peninsula.  Amanda will drop locally heavy rain over parts of El Salvador, Guatemala, Belize and eastern Mexico.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

The lower level part of the circulation of Tropical Storm Amanda will weaken while the tropical storm moves over land.  The circulation of Amanda that is above the surface could move over the Bay of Campeche early next week.  A new tropical cyclone could form over the Bay of Campeche if that happens.  The National Hurricane Center is indicating that there is a 50% probability of the formation of a tropical cyclone over the Bay of Campeche during the next five days.

Tropical Depression Two-E Forms Near Guatemala

Tropical Depression Two-E formed near the coast of Guatemala on Saturday.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Two-E was located at latitude 12.6°N and longitude 91.0°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) south of Puerto San Jose, Guatemala.  The depression was moving toward the north-northeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the entire coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala.

A distinct center of circulation developed south of the coast of Guatemala on Saturday.  More thunderstorms formed near the center and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Two-E.  Thunderstorms continued to form near the center.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the depression.  The depression was near the center of a much larger counterclockwise circulation that is sometimes called a Central American Gyre (CAG).

Tropical Depression Two-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under an upper level ridge over Central America.  The upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression Two-E could strengthen during the next few hours and there is a chance it could intensify into a tropical storm.

Tropical Depression Two-E will move around the western end of a high pressure system.  The high will steer the depression toward the north-northeast.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Depression Two-E will make landfall on the coast of Guatemala on Sunday.  The depression could drop heavy rain over  Guatemala, El Salvador and western Honduras.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods.