Tag Archives: La Paz

Olaf Weakens to Tropical Storm over Southern Baja California

Former Hurricane Olaf weakened to a tropical storm when it passed over southern Baja California on Friday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located at latitude 24.5°N and longitude 112.2°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico. Olaf was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto San Andresito to Loreto. The Tropical Storm Warning included Cabo San Lucas and La Paz.

Former Hurricane Olaf weakened on Friday when the circulation passed over mountains in the southern part of Baja California. The low level center of circulation of Tropical Storm Olaf was visible on satellite images. The low level center was back over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean near Cabo San Lazaro. There were mainly showers and lower clouds near the low level center. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern side of Olaf that were over Baja California and the Gulf of California. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation. A weather station in Puerto Cortes, Mexico recently reported a sustained wind speed of 44 m.p.h. (70 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 m.p.h. (85 km/h).

Tropical Storm Olaf will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Olaf will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 25˚C. The air over the cooler water is drier and more stable. Drier, more stable air will inhibit the develop of thunderstorms. If new thunderstorms do not form near the center of Tropical Storm Olaf during the next 12 hours, it will gradually weaken. Olaf is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Saturday.

The future track of Tropical Storm Olaf will depend on how fast Olaf weakens. If no new thunderstorms develop near the center of Olaf, then the tropical storm will be steered by the winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. A surface high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean is forecast to steer Tropical Storm Olaf toward the west-southwest during the weekend. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Olaf will gradually move away from Baja California.

Hurricane Nora Makes Landfall South of Puerto Vallarta

Hurricane Nora made landfall on the west coast of Mexico south of Puerto Vallarta on Saturday evening. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Nora was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 105.4°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) south-southwest of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. Nora was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Altata, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altata to Mazatlan, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altata to Mazatlan, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lucas to La Paz, Mexico.

The center of Hurricane Nora made landfall south of Puerto Vallarta near Vincente Guerrero, Mexico on Saturday evening. Hurricane force winds extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Nora at the time of landfall. Tropical storm force winds extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Hurricane Nora. Nora was dropping heavy rain on parts of Jalisco and Colima. The potential for flash floods was high.

Hurricane Nora is forecast to move toward the north along the west coast of Mexico. Nora is likely to weaken as the center moves along the coast. Hurricane Nora will pull drier air over Mexico into the circulation. The drier air will inhibit the development of thunderstorms. If the drier air gets to the core of Nora, it could dissipate. However, if the center of Hurricane Nora moves back over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, then Nora could maintain its intensity while it is over water. Nora would be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It would be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there would be little vertical wind shear.

Tropical Storm Enrique Moves over Gulf of California

Tropical Storm Enrique moved over the southern Gulf of California on Tuesday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located at latitude 23.8°N and longitude 109.1°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) northeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Enrique was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

The small circulation around Tropical Storm Enrique moved over the warmer water in the southern Gulf of California on Tuesday evening. New thunderstorms formed just to the east of the center of Enrique. Downdrafts in those thunderstorms transported stronger winds to the surface and Enrique maintained tropical storm intensity. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Enrique. Bands in the other quadrants of the circulation consisted of showers and lower clouds. The winds were blowing at less than tropical storm force in those parts of Enrique.

Tropical Storm Enrique will move through an environment that could allow it to maintain its intensity during the next few hours. Enrique will move over water in the Gulf of California where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Enrique is likely to weaken rapidly when the center moves over mountains in southern Baja California.

Tropical Storm Enrique will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico. The high will steer Enrique toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Enrique could pass near La Paz during the middle of Wednesday. Enrique could make landfall north of La Paz later on Wednesday. Tropical Storm Enrique will bring gusty winds and isolated heavy rainfall to parts of southeastern Baja California on Wednesday.

Hurricane Genevieve Brings Wind and Rain to Baja California

Hurricane Genevieve brought wind and rain to southern Baja California on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Genevieve was located at latitude 23.3°N and longitude 111.4°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  Genevieve was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to La Paz, Mexico.

The center of Hurricane Genevieve passed just southwest of the southern tip of Baja California on Thursday morning.  A weather station at the Cabo San Lucas Marina reported a wind gust of 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  Bands of thunderstorms were dropping heavy rain on parts of southern Baja California.  There were reports of flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Genevieve will weaken during the next several days as it moves over cooler water.  Genevieve will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are cooler than 26°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Genevieve will weaken gradually as it moves over cooler water.

Hurricane Genevieve will move around the southwestern part of a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico.  The ridge will steer Genevieve toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Genevieve will move parallel to the west coast of Baja California.  Genevieve will continue to bring gusty winds to the southern part of Baja California.  It will also drop move heavy rain and additional flash floods are likely.

Genevieve Prompts Hurricane Warning for Baja California

A potential close approach of Hurricane Genevieve prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for the southern tip of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Genevieve was located at latitude 20.9°N and longitude 109.7°W which put it about 140 miles (225 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Genevieve was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Todos Santos, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to La Paz, Mexico.

Hurricane Genevieve continued to exhibit a well organized circulation.  A circular eye was present at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Genevieve.  Storms near the core of the circulation were generating strong upper level divergence was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

Hurricane force winds extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Genevieve.  Tropical Storm force winds extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Genevieve was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.0.

Hurricane Genevieve will move through an environment less favorable for a major hurricane during the next few days.  Genevieve will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are cooler than 27°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Genevieve is likely to weaken when the core starts to move over cooler water.

Hurricane Genevieve will move around the southwestern part of an ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico.  The ridge will Genevieve toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track the core of Hurricane Genevieve could be near the southern tip of Baja California in about 18 hours.  Genevieve will cause gusty winds over the southern part of Baja California.  It will also drop locally heavy rain which could cause flash floods.

Hurricane Genevieve Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 4

Hurricane Genevieve rapidly intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Genevieve was located at latitude 17.7°N and longitude 107.6°W which put it about 390 miles (630 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  Genevieve was moving toward the northwest a 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Todos Santos, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to La Paz and from Todos Santos to Sante Fe, Mexico.

Hurricane Genevieve continued to intensify rapidly during the past 24 hours and it reached Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) formed at the center of Genevieve.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Genevieve.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane in all directions.

The circulation around Hurricane Genevieve increased in size during the past 24 hours.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Genevieve was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.0.

Hurricane Genevieve will move through an environment very favorable for strong hurricanes during the next 24 hours.  Genevieve will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Genevieve could strengthen further during the next 24 hours.  If a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could occur.  The eyewall replacement cycle would cause Hurricane Genevieve to weaken.

Hurricane Genevieve will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico.  The high will steer Genevieve toward the northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Genevieve will pass west of Baja California.  However, Genevieve could come close enough to the coast to bring tropical storm force winds and locally heavy rain to the southern portion of Baja California.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Lorena Moves Toward Baja California

Tropical Storm Lorena moved toward Baja California on Thursday night after brushing the west coast of Mexico earlier in the day.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 107.7°W which put it about 145 miles (235 km) east-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from La Paz to Puerto Cortes, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect from La Paz to San Evaristo, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect from San Evaristo to Loreto and from Puerto Cortes to Puerto San Evaristo.

When the center of former Hurricane Lorena passed near the west coast of Mexico, the eastern part of the circulation passes over mountains.  The mountains disrupted the flow of air and some drier air was pulled into the hurricane.  The disruption and drier air weakened the inner core of the circulation and caused Lorena to weaken to a tropical storm.  The inner core was beginning to redevelop on Thursday evening.  More thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation and other thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Friday.  Lorena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Lorena is likely to strengthen back into a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move around the western part of a ridge of high pressure over Mexico.  The ridge will steer Lorena toward the northwest.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Lorena will interact with the circulation of Tropical Storm Mario which is southwest of Lorena.  It looked like Lorena was pulling Mario toward the northeast on Thursday night.  However, it is possible that Mario could tug Lorena more toward the west on Friday.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Lorena will approach the southern tip of Baja California on Friday afternoon.  Lorena is likely to be a hurricane at that time.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Mario was southwest of Lorena and Tropical Storm Kiko was between Baja California and Hawaii.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 110.2°W which put it about 265 miles (590 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Mario was moving toward the northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 129.6°W which put it about 1350 miles (2175 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kiko was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.