Tag Archives: Ileana

Tropical Storm Ileana Makes Landfall on West Coast of Mexico

The center of Tropical Storm Ileana made landfall on the west coast of Mexico south of Los Mochis on Saturday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located at latitude 25.5°N and longitude 108.9°W which put the center about 20 miles (30 km) south-southeast of Los Mochis, Mexico.  Ileana was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altata to Huatabampito, Mexico.

The center of Tropical Storm Ileana made landfall on the west coast of Mexico near Topolobampo.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and eastern sides of the center of Ileana’s circulation.   Bands in the southern and western parts of Tropical Storm Ileana consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Ileana.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the eastern side of Ileana’s circulation.  The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Ileana were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ileana will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Ileana toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ileana will move near the west coast of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Ileana will weaken to a tropical depression this evening as it moves a little farther inland.  Ileana will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Sinaloa.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Ileana Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Baja California

Tropical Storm Ileana brought gusty winds and rain to the southern part of Baja California on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located at latitude 22.7°N and longitude 109.4°W which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) east-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.   Ileana was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (9 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Santa Fe to San Evaristo, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Cabo San Lucas and La Paz.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Evaristo to Loreto, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Topolobampo to Huatabampito, Mexico.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Ileana was not particularly well organized on Friday afternoon.  The northwestern part of Illeana’s circulation was passing over the southern end of Baja California.  The flow of air over land may have been disrupting the circulation.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Ileana.  Easterly winds pushing air up slopes in southern Baja California may have been contributing to the development of thunderstorms in that part of Ileana’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Ileana generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Ileana was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the eastern side of Ileana’s circulation.  The winds in the western part of Tropical Storm Ileana were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ileana will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ileana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough over the Southwest U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ileana’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Storm Ileana is likely to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.  The center of Ileana’s circulation could move across the southeastern tip of Baja California, which would also cause Tropical Storm Ileana to weaken.

Tropical Storm Ileana will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Ileana toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Ileana will move across the southeastern tip of Baja California and over the southern Gulf of California.

Tropical Storm Ileana will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern part of Baja California during the next 24 hours.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

 

Tropical Storm Ileana Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Ileana formed south of Baja California on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located at latitude 19.9°N and longitude 108.0°W which put the center about 240 miles (385 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Ileana was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Santa Fe to San Evaristo, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Cabo San Lucas and La Paz.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Evaristo to Loreto, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Topolobampo to Huatabampito, Mexico.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California strengthened on Thursday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Ileana.  More thunderstorms were developing near the center of Ileana’s circulation.  However, the distribution of theunderstorms in Tropical Storm Ileana was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Ileana’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Ileana consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Ileana was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Ileana’s circulation.  The winds in the other parts of Ileana were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ileana will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ileana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ileana’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Ileana is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Ileana will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Ileana toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ileana will reach the southern end of Baja California on Friday morning.

Tropical Storm Ileana will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern part of Baja California.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane John Absorbs Ileana, Tropical Storm Kristy Forms

The much stronger and larger circulation of Hurricane John absorbed the smaller and weaker Tropical Storm Ileana south of Baja California on Tuesday morning, while Tropical Storm Kristy formed farther west over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane John was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 110.5°W which put it about 295 miles (470 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  John was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

The circulation of Hurricane John is well organized.  A circular eye is at the center of circulation.  A ring of stronger thunderstorms wraps around the eye.  The strongest storms are in the eastern half of the ring and that is where the strongest winds are occurring.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of Hurricane John.  The strongest bands are south and east of the center of circulation.  The bands north and west of the center are weaker and there is cooler water in that area.  Storms around the core of the circulation are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping mass away from the hurricane.

Hurricane John will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Wednesday.  John will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak.  Hurricane John could intensify on lWednesday and it has a chance to strengthen into a major hurricane.  John will start to move over cooler water in 24 to 36 hours and it will start to weaken when that happens.

Hurricane John will move around the western side of a ridge in the middle troposphere.  The ridge will steer John toward the northwest during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track the core of Hurricane John will pass west of Baja California.  Rainbands north of the center of Hurricane John could drop locally heavy rain over parts of Baja California and there will be a risk of flash floods.  Hurricane John could push higher surf along the west coast of Baja California toward southern California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific, Tropical Storm Kristy formed southwest of Hurricane John on Tuesday morning.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 127.1°W which put it about 1290 miles (2080 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kristy was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.  There is much uncertainty about whether or not the circulation of Tropical Storm Kristy will be affected by the circulation of Hurricane John.

Powerful Hurricane Hector Approaches Central Pacific, Ileana Forms South of Mexico

Powerful Hurricane Hector approached the Central Pacific Ocean on Sunday while Tropical Storm Ileana and Tropical Depression Twelve-E formed south of Mexico.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast because of the potential impacts of Tropical Storm Ileana.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Hector was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 138.6°W which put it about 1170 miles (1885 km) east-southeast of South Point, Hawaii.  Hector was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

The circulation of Hurricane Hector was very well organized.  There was a circular eye with a diameter of 18 miles (29 km) at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Hector.  Storms in the core of Hector were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation of Hurricane Hector remained compact.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Hector was 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9,9 and The Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.2.

Hurricane Hector will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong hurricane during the next day or two.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C and 28°C.  Hector will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  An eyewall replacement cycle could occur if a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall.  It would cause fluctuations in the intensity of Hurricane Hector.

Hurricane Hector will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Hurricane Hector toward the west during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Hector will be southeast of Hawaii in about three days.

Tropical Storm Ileana developed south of Mexico on Sunday.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 98.9°W which put it about 210 miles (335 km) south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.  Ileana was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Depression Twelve-E formed west of Tropical Storm Ileana on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 105.8°W which put it about 320 miles (515 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  It was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

There is uncertainty about the future interaction of Tropical Storm Ileana and Tropical Depression Twelve-E.  The circulation of Tropical Depression Twelve-E is much larger than the circulation of Tropical Storm Ileana.  In addition, upper level divergence form the depression could cause vertical wind shear over Tropical Storm Ileana.  In one possible scenario Tropical Storm Ileana moves toward Tropical Depression Twelve-E and it is absorbed by the larger circulation.  Another possibility is that Tropical Storm Ileana moves around the eastern periphery of the circulation of the tropical depression,  The second scenario would bring Tropical Storm Ileana close to the west coast of Mexico which is why the Tropical Storm Watch was issued.