Tag Archives: Tropical Storm Julia

Tropical Storm Julia Crosses Nicaragua to the Eastern North Pacific

Former Hurricane Julia moved across Nicaragua to the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Sunday. Julia weakened to a tropical storm as it was moving across Nicaragua. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 88.1°W which put it about 95 miles (155 km) southeast of San Salvador, El Salvador. Julia was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Sandino, Nicaragua to the border with Honduras. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Pacific coast of Honduras and the entire coast of El Salvador. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Pacific coast of Guatemala.

Former Hurricane Julia weakened to a tropical storm as it moved across Nicaragua on Sunday. The center of Tropical Storm Julia emerged over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Nicaragua late on Sunday afternoon. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a band that wrapped around the southern and eastern sides of the center of Julia’s circulation. Bands in other parts of Tropical Storm Julia consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. About half of Julia’s circulation was still over land. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Julia will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Julia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over Central America. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, nearly half of the circulation of Tropical Storm Julia will still be over land. More friction will affect the part of the circulation over land, and that will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Julia could strengthen a little during the next 24 hours, if the center of circulation moves farther out over the Eastern North Pacific.

Tropical Storm Julia will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Julia toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours, On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Julia will move near the coast of El Salvador on Monday. Julia will bring gusty winds to the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador. Tropical Storm Julia could continue to drop heavy rain over parts of northern Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Julia Strengthens over Southwest Caribbean

Tropical Storm Julia strengthened over the Southwest Caribbean Sea on Saturday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 79.0°W which put it about 165 miles (2705 km) east-southeast of Isla de Providencia, Colombia. Julia was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua to the border with Honduras. Tropical Storm Warning were in effect for the portion of the coast from Bluefields, Nicaragua to the border with Costa Rica and from Puerto Cabezas to the border with Honduras. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Patuca, Honduras to the border with Nicaragua.

Tropical Storm Julia strengthened over the Southwest Caribbean Sea east of Nicaragua on Saturday morning. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Julia’s circulation and in bands revolving around the center. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Julia will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Julia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Julia will intensify during the next 36 hours. Julia is likely to strengthen to a hurricane during the the next 12 hours. Tropical Storm Julia could intensify rapidly after an inner core with an eye and an eyewall form.

Tropical Storm Julia will move south of a high pressure system over the Caribbean Sea. The high pressure system will steer Julia toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Julia will reach San Andres, Providencia and the Santa Catalina Islands by Saturday evening. It could be a hurricane by that time. Julia could reach the coast of Nicaragua early on Sunday. Julia will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations. Julia could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters).

Tropical Storm Julia Develops North of Colombia

Tropical Storm Julia developed over the Caribbean Sea just north of Colombia on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located at latitude 12.7°N and longitude 73.1°W which put it about 110 miles (175 km) west of the northern tip of the Guajira Peninsula, Colombia. Julia was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bluefields, Nicaragua to the border with Honduras. A Tropical Storm Warning for the portion of the coast from Riohacha, Colombia eastward to the border with Venezuela. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Patuca, Honduras to the border with Nicaragua.

Former Tropical Depression Thirteen strengthened on Friday morning after the center of circulation moved over the Caribbean Sea north of Colombia and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the weather system to Tropical Storm Julia. Almost half of the circulation of Tropical Storm Julia was still over northern Colombia. More thunderstorms formed in the northern side of Julia which was over the Caribbean Sea. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern and western sides of the center of Tropical Storm Julia. Storms near the center of Julia generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the Tropical Storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles in the northern side of Julia’s circulation. The winds in the southern half of Julia were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Julia will move into an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Julia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Julia will intensify during the next 36 hours. Julia is likely to strengthen to a hurricane during the weekend. Tropical Storm Julia could intensify rapidly after an inner core with an eye and an eyewall form.

Tropical Storm Julia will move south of a high pressure system over the Caribbean Sea. The high pressure system will steer Julia toward the west during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Julia will move over the southwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Julia could reach San Andres, Providencia and the Santa Catalina Islands by Saturday evening. It could be a hurricane by that time. Julia could reach the coast of Nicaragua on Sunday morning. Julia will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Julia Edges Farther from the Southeast U.S.

Tropical Storm Julia moved slowly eastward on Thursday which took it farther from the Southeastern coast of the U.S.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located at latitude 32.1°N and longitude 77.1°W which put it about 150 miles (245 km) south-southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina.  Julia was moving toward the east at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Julia is not well organized.  All of the stronger thunderstorms are well to the east of the center of circulation.  The broad low level circulation is elongated from the west-southwest of the east-northeast.  There are no thunderstorms close to the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Julia is in an environment that is unfavorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  So, there is sufficient energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  However, upper level westerly winds are causing strong vertical wind shear.  The upper level winds have at least temporarily blown the upper part of the circulation east of the lower third of the circulation.  As long as the upper level winds are as strong as they are now, Tropical Storm Julia will slowly weaken.  If the upper level winds slow down, then more thunderstorms could develop near the center and Julia could get a little stronger.  With the current strong vertical wind shear Tropical Storm Julia should slowly weaken during the next few hours.

The vertical structure of Tropical Storm Julia maintained enough integrity that the westerly winds pushed the thunderstorms toward the east and they dragged the low level center with them.  However, it now appears that the vertical parts of the circulation have separated.  The low level circulation is being steered slowly back toward the southwest by a surface high pressure system to the north of Julia.  Tropical Storm Julia could move erratically during the next several days.  As long as no thunderstorms form near the center, it will drift slowly toward the southwest.  Any time thunderstorms form near the center of circulation, the taller storm will be pushed toward the east.

Tropical Storm Julia Forms over Northeast Florida

Although tropical storms normally form over an ocean, Tropical Storm Julia formed over northeast Florida on Tuesday.  The National Hurricane Center (NHC) had tracked a tropical disturbance from Africa across the Atlantic Ocean to Florida.  NHC had designated the system as Invest 93L for tracking purposes.  Although the disturbance moved over the Florida peninsula on Monday, a distinct center of circulation developed at the surface on Tuesday while the disturbance moved north over the northeastern part of Florida.  An area of stronger thunderstorms formed over the Atlantic Ocean east of the center of circulation on Tuesday afternoon and persisted into Tuesday evening.  Because the system had a distinct surface center, persistent thunderstorms and winds to tropical storm force, the National Hurricane Center named it Tropical Storm Julia at 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday and initiated advisories on the Julia.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located at latitude 30.3°N and longitude 81.6°W which put it about 5 miles (10 km) west of Jacksonville, Florida.  Julia was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Julia is very asymmetrical.  Most of the thunderstorms and rain are north and east of the of circulation.  There are few storms or rain west and south of the center.  One primary rainband extends part of the way around the southeastern portion of the circulation.  The thunderstorms to the east of the center are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass to the northeast of the circulation.

Since the center of Tropical Storm Julia is over land, intensification would normally be unlikely.  However, about half of the circulation is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  In addition, the atmospheric environment is favorable for strengthening.  The upper level winds are not too strong and the vertical wind shear is moderate.  It is possible that the wind speeds could increase in the thunderstorms in the part of the circulation that is over the Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday.

The steering currents around Tropical Storm Julia are quite complicated.  There is an upper low over the Gulf of Mexico, a ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean and an upper level trough moving toward the Great Lakes and East Coast of the U.S.  The upper low and ridge over the western Atlantic combined to steer Julia mainly toward the north-northwest on Tuesday.  At times the asymmetric circulation and the upper level divergence to the east of the circulation caused the center to move east as well.  It is likely that this motion will continue on Wednesday.  The center of Julia could move very close to the coast of Georgia.  If the center remains inland, then Tropical Storm Julia will start to weaken slowly.  If the center moves over the water, then it could intensify and persist longer.

The primary risk posed by Tropical Storm Julia will be locally heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding.  Winds and waves along the coast will cause rip currents and some beach erosion.  Water rises of several feet (one meter) will be possible.