Tropical Storm Julia Edges Farther from the Southeast U.S.

Tropical Storm Julia moved slowly eastward on Thursday which took it farther from the Southeastern coast of the U.S.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located at latitude 32.1°N and longitude 77.1°W which put it about 150 miles (245 km) south-southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina.  Julia was moving toward the east at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Julia is not well organized.  All of the stronger thunderstorms are well to the east of the center of circulation.  The broad low level circulation is elongated from the west-southwest of the east-northeast.  There are no thunderstorms close to the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Julia is in an environment that is unfavorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  So, there is sufficient energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  However, upper level westerly winds are causing strong vertical wind shear.  The upper level winds have at least temporarily blown the upper part of the circulation east of the lower third of the circulation.  As long as the upper level winds are as strong as they are now, Tropical Storm Julia will slowly weaken.  If the upper level winds slow down, then more thunderstorms could develop near the center and Julia could get a little stronger.  With the current strong vertical wind shear Tropical Storm Julia should slowly weaken during the next few hours.

The vertical structure of Tropical Storm Julia maintained enough integrity that the westerly winds pushed the thunderstorms toward the east and they dragged the low level center with them.  However, it now appears that the vertical parts of the circulation have separated.  The low level circulation is being steered slowly back toward the southwest by a surface high pressure system to the north of Julia.  Tropical Storm Julia could move erratically during the next several days.  As long as no thunderstorms form near the center, it will drift slowly toward the southwest.  Any time thunderstorms form near the center of circulation, the taller storm will be pushed toward the east.