The risk posed by Tropical Storm Lorena prompted the government of Mexico to issue a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast of southern Baja California.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 109.0°W which put the center about 250 miles (400 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Lorena strengthened gradually on Tuesday afternoon.  Thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of Lorena’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Lorena.  Storms near the center of Lorena generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Lorena was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Lorena’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lorena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Lorena’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Lorena will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Lorena could strengthen to a hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Lorena toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Lorena will move south of Baja California during Tuesday night.  Lorena is expected to move toward the northeast later this week.  Tropical Storm Lorena could approach the coast of Baja California between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia on Friday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Kiko strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale far to the east of Hawaii.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Kiko was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 128.9°W which put the center about 1775 miles (2855 km) east Hilo Hawaii.  Kiko was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.