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Tropical Storm Choi-wan Drops Rain on Luzon

Tropical Storm Choi-wan dropped rain on parts of Luzon around Manila on Wednesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Choi-wan was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 119.6°E which put it about 85 miles (135 km) west-northwest of Manila, Philippines. Choi-wan was moving toward the northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

The center of Tropical Storm Choi-wan passed just south of Manila before the tropical storm moved west of Luzon. Bands near the center of Choi-wan dropped rain on parts of Luzon near Manila. Other bands in the southern half of Tropical Storm Choi-wan dropped rain on Mindoro. Choi-wan was still producing a few winds that were blowing at tropical storm force, but Manila did not report any winds that were that strong.

Tropical Storm Choi-wan exhibited an organized circulation on Wednesday afternoon. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western, southern and eastern sides of the center of Choi-wan. Other bands of thunderstorms were in the southern half of the tropical storm. Bands in the northern half of Tropical Storm Choi-wan consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Choi-wan.

Tropical Storm Choi-wan will move through an area that is marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The center of Choi-wan will move over the South China Sea where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. However, an upper level ridge centered over southern China will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will limit the potential for intensification, but Tropical Storm Choi-wan could get a little stronger during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Choi-wan will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Choi-wan toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Choi-wan will move northwest of Luzon during the next 24 hours. Choi-wan will turn toward the northeast on Friday after it moves around the western end of the high pressure system. Tropical Storm Choi-wan could approach the southern end of Taiwan in 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Choi-wan Brings Rain to Philippines

Tropical Storm Choi-wan brought rain to the central Philippines on Tuesday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Choi-wan was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 121.9°E which put it about 155 miles (250 km) southeast of Manila, Philippines. Choi-wan was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

The center of Tropical Storm Choi-wan made an initial landfall on the east coast of Samar and then it moved west-northwest across the central Philippines. Choi-wan moved across the Sibuyan Sea and it was centered southeast of Manila on Tuesday night. The circulation around Tropical Storm Choi-wan weakened when the center passed over Samar, but it was still producing a small area of tropical storm force winds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Choi-wan.

Tropical Storm Choi-wan dropped locally heavy rain over parts of Samar, Masbate, Panay and Mindoro on Tuesday. An upper level ridge centered over southern China was producing northeasterly winds which were blowing toward the top of Choi-wan. Those winds were producing moderate vertical wind shear and they causing the heavier rain to fall in bands in the southern half of Tropical Storm Choi-wan. Bands in the northern half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Storm Choi-wan will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Choi-wan toward the north-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Choi-wan could pass just south of Manila in 12 hours. Choi-wan could drop locally heavy rain on Mindoro and western Luzon. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Choi-wan will move through an environment that is mostly unfavorable for intensification. Choi-wan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. However, the upper level ridge center over southern China will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will limit the potential for intensification. The eastern side of the circulation around Tropical Storm Choi-wan will be over Luzon during the next 24 hours, which will also be unfavorable for intensification.

Typhoon Vamco Makes Landfall Northeast of Manila

Typhoon Vamco made landfall on Luzon northeast of Manila on Wednesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Vamco was located at latitude 15.0°N and longitude 120.6°E which put it about 35 miles (55 km) northeast of Manila, Philippines. Vamco was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Typhoon Vamco was strengthening when it made landfall on Luzon. Vamco was nearly the equivalent of a major hurricane at the time of landfall. The circulation around Typhoon Vamco also increased in size prior to landfall. Winds to typhoon force extended out 100 miles (160 km) on the northern side of Vamco. Winds to force extended out 40 miles (65 km) on the southern side of the typhoon. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 350 miles in the northern half of the circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles in the southern half of Vamco. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Vamco was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 28.4 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 47.6. Typhoon Vamco was capable of causing widespread serious damage to Luzon.

The center of Typhoon Vamco passed over the Polillo Islands before it reached Luzon. The center of Vamco will pass just north Manila, but it will be close enough to cause strong winds. The center will pass near San Fernando and Olongapo before it moves over the South China Sea. Typhoon Vamco will drop very heavy rain over Luzon and significant floods could occur. There will also be widespread power outages.

Typhoon Vamco will weaken as it passes over Luzon, but Vamco could still be a typhoon when it reaches the South China Sea. A high pressure system over eastern Asia will steer Typhoon Vamco toward the west. On its anticipated track Vamco could approach Vietnam in two or three days.

Vamco Rapidly Intensifies to Typhoon East of Luzon

Former Tropical Storm Vamco rapidly intensified into a typhoon east of Luzon on Tuesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Vamco was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 124.0°E which put it about 230 miles (375 km) east of Manila, Philippines. Vamco was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Typhoon Vamco intensified rapidly on Tuesday. A circular eye was visible on satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Vamco. Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon. Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Vamco. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Vamco will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Vamco will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Vamco will continue to intensify rapidly and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Typhoon Vamco will move south of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Vamco toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Typhoon Vamco will make landfall on the east coast of Luzon in about 12 hours. The center of Vamco will pass north of Manila and the core of Typhoon Vamco could come close to San Francisco.

Typhoon Vamco will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Luzon. Vamco will be capable of causing major damage. The heavy rain will cause flash floods in part of Luzon. Typhoon Vamco could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) on the east coast of Luzon. Vamco will weaken when the center passes over Luzon, but it is likely to still be a typhoon when it passes north of Manila. Typhoon Vamco is also likely to cause widespread power outages on Luzon.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Etau was dropping heavy rain over Cambodia. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Etau was located at latitude 12.5°N and longitude 105.5°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) northeast of Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Etau was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Dangerous Typhoon Goni Hits Catanduanes

Extremely dangerous Typhoon Goni hit Catanduanes Island on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Goni was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 124.4°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northeast of Virac, Philippines. Goni was moving toward the west-southwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 235 m.p.h. (380 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 884 mb.

The eye of Typhoon Goni moved over the southern part of Catanduanes Island on Saturday. Despite the development of concentric eyewalls and the occurrence of an eyewall replacement cycle, Goni actually strengthened on Saturday. The original inner eyewall weakened and the outer eyewall contracted around the center of Typhoon Goni. Goni exhibited an eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) when it made landfall on Catanduanes Island.

The circulation around Typhoon Goni increased in size during the eyewall replacement cycle. Winds to typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Goni. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Goni was 48.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 64.0. Typhoon Goni was capable of causing catastrophic damage on a regional scale.

Typhoon Goni will also generate a storm surge of up to 20 feet (6 meters) along the coasts of Catanduanes Island and southeastern Luzon. Typhoon Goni will move west across the Philippines. Goni will weaken as the core passes over land. The center of Goni will make landfall in southeastern Luzon near Tabaco. The southern eyewall of Goni will produce strong winds in Legaspi. The northern eyewall will bring strong winds to Naga. Typhoon Goni could be near Manila in 18 hours and it could still be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time. Goni will also drop locally heavy rain over southern Luzon and flash floods are likely.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Atsani was organizing slowly east of the Philippines. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Atsani was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 135.8°E which put it about 900 miles (1450 km) east of Luzon. Atsani was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb. Tropical Storm Atsani was forecast to move toward the west and to strengthen.

Potentially Catastrophic Typhoon Goni Nears Luzon

Potentially catastrophic Typhoon Goni neared Luzon on Saturday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Goni was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 126.9°E which put it about 300 miles (485 km) east-northeast of Labo, Philippines. Goni was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 220 m.p.h. (355 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 898 mb.

Typhoon Goni exhibited a double eyewall structure sometimes seen in very intense tropical cyclones. There was a small inner eye with a diameter of 6 miles (10 km). That eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that inner eyewall. A second, outer eyewall with a diameter of 35 miles (56 km) surrounded the inner core of Typhoon Goni. Storms near the core of Gone generated strong upper level divergence which pumped large quantities of mass away from the typhoon. The removal of so much mass allowed the surface pressure to remain very low. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the typhoon.

The circulation around Typhoon Goni increased in size when the double eyewalls formed. Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Goni. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Goni was 42.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 55.8. Typhoon Goni was capable of causing catastrophic damage.

Typhoon Goni will move through an environment favorable for a strong typhoon during the next 12 hours. Goni will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. An eyewall replacement cycle could cause Typhoon Goni to start to weaken. If the original inner eyewall dissipates and convergence becomes concentrated into the new outer eyewall, then the wind speed will decrease. However, Goni is likely to maintain much of its intensity until it reaches Luzon.

Typhoon Goni will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Goni toward the west. On its anticipated track Typhoon Goni will be near Cataduanes Island in 12 48 hours. Goni could be near Manila in 24 hours. Typhoon Goni is capable of causing catastrophic damage to Luzon. Goni could generate a storm surge of up to 20 feet (6 meters) along the coast of southeastern Luzon. Typhoon Goni will drop heavy rain over parts of Luzon and flash floods are likely.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Atsani moved north of Yap. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Atsani was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 138.2°E which put it about 1060 miles (1705 km) east of Luzon. Astani was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb. Tropical Storm Atsani was forecast to move toward the northwest and to strengthen.

Tropical Storm Molave Forms East of Luzon, Saudel Approaches Vietnam

Teopical Storm Molave formed east of Luzon and Tropical Sorm Saudel approached Vietnam on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Molave was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 127.1°E which put it about 300 miles (485 km) east of Tabaco, Philippines. Molave was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A low pressure system east of the Philippines strengthened on Saturday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Molave. The circulation around Tropical Storm Molave was still organizing. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Molave. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical StormMolave will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days. Molave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Molave will strengthen during the 12 to 18 hours before it reaches the Philippines. Molave could weaken when its circulation interacts with the islands of the Philippines. Molave could strengthen to a typhoon when it moves over the South China Sea early next week.

Tropical Storm Molave will move south of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Molave toward the east. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Molave will approach Catanduanes Island in about 12 hours. Molave will reach southeastern Luzon in about 18 hours. Tropical Storm Molave will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the central Philippines. The center of Molave could pass just south of Manila in a day or so. It could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Saudel passes south of Hainan Island as it moved closer to the coast of Vietnam. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Saudel was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 109.7°E which put it about 210 miles (340 km) east of Xuan Duc, Vietnam. Saudel was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Storm Saudel will make landfall on the central coast of Vietnam near Xuan Duc in about 18 hours. It will bring gusty winds to the coast. Saudel will drop heavy rain over parts of central Vietnam, southern Laos and northeastern Thailand. The ground in those areas is saturated from prior rain dropped by earlier tropical cyclones and other weather systems. Saudel will make ongoing floods worse.

Tropical Storm Saudel Brings Wind and Rain to Luzon

Tropical Storm Saudel brought wind and rain to Luzon on Tuesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Saudel was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 121.6°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) northeast of Manila, Philippines. Saudel was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) determined based on weather radar that the center of Tropical Storm Saudel made landfall on the east coast of Luzon north of Baler on Tuesday. Saudel was getting stronger at the time of landfall. The radar indicated that there was a small, tight center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms wrapped closely around the center of Tropical Storm Saudel. Other outer rainbands were revolving around the center. Satellite imagery showed that storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west and north of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Saudel.

Tropical Storm Saudel will move across northern Luzon during the next 12 hours. Saudel will bring gusty winds an it will drop locally heavy rain over parts of northern Luzon. Heavy rain could could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Storm Saudel will weaken while the center crosses Luzon. The center of Saudel is likely to emerge over the South China Sea near Baguio in about 12 hours.

Tropical Storm Saudel will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification when it moves over the South China Sea.  Saudel will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will be under the southern part of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The shear will inhibit intensification but it will not be strong enough to keep Tropical Storm Saudel from intensifying. Saudel will begin to strengthen again when it moves back over water and it could intensify into a typhoon.

Tropical Storm Saudel will move south of a ridge of high pressure over eastern Asia.  The ridge will steer Saudel toward the west during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Saudel will approach the coast of Vietnam in a few days.

Tropical Storm Noul Forms West of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Noul formed over the South China Sea west of the Philippines on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Noul was located at latitude 12.9°N and longitude 118.0°E which put it about 215 miles (345 km) southwest of Manila, Philippines.  Noul was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Noul was still organizing on Tuesday afternoon.  More thunderstorms were developing near the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Noul.  Storms near the center started to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Noul will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Noul will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30.5°C.  It will move south of an upper level ridge over the South China Sea.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Noul.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, but they will not be strong enough to prevent Noul from intensifying.  Tropical Storm Noul could strengthen into a typhoon within 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Noul will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Noul toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Noul could approach the coast of Vietnam in about 60 hours.  It is likely to be a typhoon when it nears Vietnam.

Tropical Depression Develops West of Luzon

A tropical depression developed west of Luzon on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression 02W was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 119.2°E which put it about 135 miles (215 km) northwest of Manila, Philippines.  The depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

An area of low pressure moved west of Luzon on Thursday night and several weather agencies classified the system as a tropical depression.  The circulation around Tropical Depression 02W was not well organized.  There were a number of fragmented bands of showers and thunderstorms revolving around the center of the depression.  The strongest thunderstorms were in bands west and north of the center.  Bands east of the center of circulation were still over the Philippines and those bands consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Depression 02W will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30.5°C.  It will move under the southwestern portion of an upper level ridge centered northeast of Taiwan.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the depression.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Depression 02W is likely to intensify into a tropical storm during the next 24 hours in spite of the vertical wind shear.

Tropical Depression 02W will move around the southwestern end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer the depression toward the northwest during the next 36 to 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression 02W will approach the coast of China west of Hong Kong in about 48 hours.  It will likely be a tropical storm at that time.