Tag Archives: Ryukyu Islands

Typhoon Dolphin Moves Toward Eastern China

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Typhoon Dolphin moved away from Okinawa and toward eastern China on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Dolphin was located at latitude 26.6°N and longitude 126.2°E which put the center about 350 miles (565 km) east-southeast of Wenzhou, China. Dolphin was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

Typhoon Dolphin maintained its intensity as it moved away from Okinawa on Friday.  A small circular eye was visible at the center of Dolphin’s circulation.  A band of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that band of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dolphin’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Dolphin generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much on Friday.

Typhoon Dolphin was a large typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 145 miles (235 km) in the northern half of Dolphin’s circulation.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) in the southern half of Typhoon Dolphin.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 305 miles (490 km) from the center of Dolphin’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Dolphin is 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 32.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 50.1.  Typhoon Dolphin is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Frances when Frances hit South Florida in 2004.

Typhoon Dolphin will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dolphin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, the circulation around Typhoon Dolphin could pull drier air over China into its circulation.  Typhoon Dolphin is likely to start to weaken gradually as it moved closer to eastern China.

Typhoon Dolphin will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dolphin toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Dolphin could hit the east coast of China in less than 48 hours.

The large circulation around Typhoon Dolphin will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rain to the Ryukyu Islands on Saturday.

Typhoon Dolphin will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of eastern China by the end of the weekend.  Dolphin will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Zhejiang, Anhui, and Jiangsu.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Typhoon Dolphin could also produce a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the east coast of China.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Chan-hom weakened east of Japan.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Chan-hom was located at latitude 32.3°N and longitude 157.3°E which put the center about 1100 miles (1775 km) east of Tokyo, Japan.  Chan-hom was moving toward the northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Typhoon Dolphin Hits Okinawa

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Typhoon Dolphin hit Okinawa on Thursday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Dolphin was located at latitude 27.2°N and longitude 128.3°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) north-northeast of Okinawa.  Dolphin was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Typhoon Dolphin started to intensify on Thursday evening as it approached Okinawa.  A small circular eye was visible at the center of Dolphin’s circulation on satellite and radar images.   Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dolphin’s circulation.    Storms near the core of Dolphin generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was greater than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure decreased a little on Thursday.

The eye of Typhoon Dolphin was passing just to the north of Okinawa.  The southern part of the eyewall of Dolphin was passing over northern Okinawa.

A weather station at Naha Airport (ROAH) in Okinawa reported a sustained wind speed of 46 m.p.h. (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 61 m.p.h. (98 km/h).

Typhoon Dolphin was a large typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 140 miles (220 km) in the northern half of Dolphin’s circulation.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the southern half of Typhoon Dolphin.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 310 miles (500 km) from the center of Dolphin’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Dolphin is 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 38.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 54.8

Typhoon Dolphin will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dolphin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Dolphin could intensify on Friday as long as Okinawa does not disrupt the inner core of its circulation..

Typhoon Dolphin will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dolphin toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Dolphin will move west of the Ryukyu Islands on Friday.  Dolphin could hit the east coast of China in less than 48 hours.

Typhoon Dolphin will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Ryukyu Islands on Friday.  The strongest winds and heaviest rain will occur in Okinawa.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Dolphin could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of some of the islands.

Even the center of Typhoon Dolphin will pass north of Taiwan, bands in the southern part of Dolphin’s circulation will drop heavy rain on northern Taiwan.

Typhoon Dolphin will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to eastern China.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Chan-hom formed southeast of Japan.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Chan-hom was located at latitude 29.6°N and longitude 160.3°E which put the center about 1300 miles (2095 km) east-southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Chan-hom was moving toward the northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Typhoon Dolphin Continues Toward Okinawa

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Typhoon Dolphin continued to move toward Okinawa on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Dolphin was located at latitude 26.3°N and longitude 132.9°E which put the center about 355 miles (570 km) east of Okinawa.  Dolphin was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Typhoon Dolphin weakened slowly on Wednesday.  The circulation around Dolphin pulled some drier air close to the core of the typhoon.  The drier air caused thunderstorms in some parts of Typhoon Dolphin to weaken.

There was still a small circular eye at the center of Typhoon Dolphin.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.   Bands of showers and thunderstorms still were revolving around the core of Dolphin’s circulation.  There were wider areas of clear air in between the rainbands.  Storms near the core of Dolphin generated less upper level divergence that pumped less mass away from the typhoon. The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Wednesday.

The circulation around Typhoon Dolpin was still large on Wednesday.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Dolphin’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 305 miles (490 km) from the center of Typhoon Dolphin.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Dolphin is 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 44.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 58.6. Typhoon Dolphin is similar in intensity to Hurricane Sandy was when Sandy hit the East Coast of the U.S. in 2012.  Typhoon Dolphin is not quite as big as Sandy was.

Typhoon Dolphin will move through an environment that will be favorable for a strong typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Dolphin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, the drier air being pulled into Dolphin’s circulation will inhibit intensification.  Typhoon Dolphin is likely to maintain its intensity on Thursday.

Typhoon Dolphin will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dolphin toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Dolphin will be near Minami Daito Jima in 12 hours. The center of Typhoon Dolpin will approach Okinawa in 24 hours,

Typhoon Dolphin will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Minami Daito Jima and to the central Ryukyu Islands including Okinawa later this week.  Heavy rains are likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Dolphin could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of some of the islands.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Kujira dropped heavy rain on parts of Luzon.  Kujira weakened to a tropical depression after the center moved over Luzon.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Kujira was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 121.6°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) northwest of Cauayan, Philippines.  Kujira was moving toward the east-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

 

Typhoon Dolphin Moves Toward Okinawa

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Typhoon Dolphin moved toward Okinawa on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Dolphin was located at latitude 25.5°N and longitude 137.7°E which put the center about 655 miles (1055 km) east of Okinawa.  Dolphin was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 943 mb.

The intensity of Typhoon Dolphin fluctuated a little on Tuesday, but Dolphin ended the day as strong as it was when the day started.  A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Dolphin’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.

Typhoon Dolphin appeared to pull some drier air into its circulation on Tuesday.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms still were revolving around the core of Dolphin’s circulation.  However, there were wider areas of clear air in between the rainbands.  Storms near the core of Dolphin generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much again on Tuesday.

The circulation around Typhoon Dolpin got even larger on Tuesday.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of Dolphin’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 290 miles (465 km) from the center of Typhoon Dolphin.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Dolphin is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 40.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 61.2.  Typhoon Dolphin is similar in intensity to Hurricane Irma was when Irma hit South Florida in 2017.  Typhoon Dolphin is much larger than Irma was.

Typhoon Dolphin will move through an environment that will be favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Dolphin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Dolphin is likely to maintain its intensity on Wednesday unless another eyewall replacement cycle occurs.

Typhoon Dolphin will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dolphin toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Dolphin will be near Minami Daito Jima in less than 36 hours.  The center of Typhoon Dolpin will be near Okinawa in 48 hours,

Typhoon Dolphin will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Minami Daito Jima and to the central Ryukyu Islands including Okinawa later this week.  Heavy rains are likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Dolphin could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of some of the islands.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Kujira formed west of Luzon.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Kujira was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 119.0°E which put the center about 260 miles (420 km) northwest of Manila, Philippines.  Kujira was moving toward the west-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Typhoon Dolphin Brings Wind and Rain to Iwo To

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Typhoon Dolphin brought wind and rain to Iwo To on Monday.  The center of Dolphin’s circulation was still east of Iwo To.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Dolphin was located at latitude 25.1°N and longitude 142.6°E which put the center about 105 miles (1650 km) east of Iwo To.  Dolphin was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Typhoon Dolphin maintained its intensity after it completed another eyewall replacement cycle.  A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was at the center of Dophin’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Typhoon Dolphin.  Storms near the core of Dolphin generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much on Monday.

Multiple eyewall replacement cycles have turned Dolphin into a large typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the northern side of Dolphin’s circulation. Winds to typhoon force only extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the southern side of Typhoon Dolphin.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 265 miles (425 km) from the center of Dolphin’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Dolphin is 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 25.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 45.7.  Typhoon Dolphin is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Irma was when Irma hit South Florida in 2017.

Typhoon Dolphin will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dolphin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Dolphin could intensify on Tuesday unless another  eyewall replacement cycle occurs.

Typhoon Dolphin will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dolphin toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Dolphin will cross Iwo To during the next few hours.  The center of Dolphin’s circulation will approach Minami Daito Jima in 48 hours.  The center of Typhoon Dolpin will be near Okinawa in 3 days,

Typhoon Dolphin will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to Iwo To on Tuesday.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Typhoon Dolphin will be capable of causing major damage.

Typhoon Dolphin will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Minami Daito Jima and to the central Ryukyu Islands including Okinawa later this week.

Typhoon Bavi Brings Wind and Rain to Ryukyu Islands

Typhoon Bavi brought wind and rain to the southern Ryukyu Islands on Friday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Bavi was located at latitude 25.6°N and longitude 124.1°E which put the center about 165 miles (265 km) east-northeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Bavi was moving toward the north-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.

A weather station in Ishigakijima Island reported at sustained wind speed of 49 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  A weather station in Nakasuji, Japan reported a sustained wind speed of 53 m.p.h. (85 km/h).

Typhoon Bavi strengthened a little as it approached the southern Ryukyu Islands on Friday.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Bavi’s circulation.  Concentric eyewalls appeared for a time on radar images from the Japan Meteorological Agency.  A small inner eye and eyewall was surrounded by a much larger outer eyewall that was a remnant from the last eyewall replacement cycle.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Typhoon Bavi continued to be asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring mostly in bands in the southern half of Bavi’s circulation.  Bands in the northern half of Typhoon Bavi consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Bavi generated more upper level divergence.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease on Friday.

Typhoon Bavi continued to be a very large typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Bavi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 370 miles (595 km) from the center of Typhoon Bavi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bavi is 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 48.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 62.1.  Typhoon Bavi is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sandy when Sandy hit the east coast of the U.S. in 2012.

Typhoon Bavi will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Bavi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Bavi will move through a region of drier air that is near eastern of Chin.a  The drier air will inhibit intensification.  Typhoon Bavi could maintain its intensity during the next 12 hours.

Typhoon Bavi will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bavi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Bavi will reach the east coast of China near Wenzhou in 12 hours.

Typhoon Bavi will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Zhejiang.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Bavi could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the east coast of China.

Typhoon Bavi Moves Toward Southern Ryukyu Islands

Typhoon Bavi continued to move toward the southern Ryukyu Islands and Taiwan on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Bavi was located at latitude 18.6°N and longitude 129.6°E which put the center about 605 miles (975 km) southeast of Ishigakijima, Japan.  Bavi was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

The cumulative effects of multiple eyewall replacement cycles caused Typhoon Bavi to weaken on Wednesday.  The most recent inner eyewall weakened and a much larger eye with a diameter of 70 miles (110 km) formed at the center of Bavi’s circulation.  The large eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Typhoon Bavi.  Storms near the center of Bavi generated less upper level divergence that pumped less mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased again on Wednesday.

The effects of the multiple eyewall replacement cycles also created a very large circulation around typhoon Bavi.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Bavi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 335 miles (540 km) from the center of Typhoon Bavi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bavi is 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 54.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 78.5.  Typhoon Bavi is similar in intensity to Hurricane Katrina when Katrina hit Mississippi in 2005.  Typhoon Bavi is much larger than Katrina was.

Typhoon Bavi will move through an environment that will be somewhat unfavorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Bavi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Typhoon Bavi will move into a region of drier air that is east of Taiwan.  The drier air will inhibit the formation of new thunderstorms in the northwestern part of Bavi’s circulaiton.  Typhoon Bavi is likely to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours because of the drier air and the lingering effects of the eyewall replacement cycles.

Typhoon Bavi will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bavi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Bavi will approach the southern Ryukyu Islands in 36 hours.  The center of Bavi will be near northeastern Taiwan in 48 hours.

Typhoon Bavi will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the southern Ryukyu Islands and to Taiwan.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Bavi could cause a storms surge of up to 12 feet (3.6 meters) along the coast of the southern Ryukyu Islands and northern Taiwan.

Typhoon Bavi Churns West

Typhoon Bavi continued to churn westward toward the southern Ryukyu Islands on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Bavi was located at latitude 16.9°N and longitude 134.7°E which put the center about 975 miles (1575 km) east-southeast of Ishigakijima, Japan.  Bavi was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 927 mb.

Typhoon Bavi completed another eyewall replacement cycle on Tuesday.  An circular eye with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) was at the center of Bavi’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Typhoon Bavi.  Storms near the center of Bavi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon. The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much on Tuesday.

There was a large circulation around Typhoon Bavi.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Bavi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 310 miles (500 km) from the center of Typhoon Bavi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bavi is 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 37.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 69.5. Typhoon Bavi is similar in intensity to Hurricane Laura when Laura hit Southwest Louisiana in 2020.  Typhoon Bavi is much larger than Laura was.

Typhoon Bavi will more through an environment that will be favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Bavi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Bavi could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours unless another eyewall replacement cycle occurs.

Typhoon Bavi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bavi toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Bavi will approach the southern Ryukyu Islands and Taiwan in less than 72 hours.

Typhoon Bavi Moves Away from the Marianas

Typhoon Bavi moved away from the Marianas on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Bavi was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 140.4°E which put the center about 300 miles (480 km) west-northwest of Guam.  Bavi was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 921 mb.

Typhoon Bavi was in the middle of another eyewall replacement cycle on Monday afternoon.  An inner eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Bavi’s circulation.  The inner eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the inner eye and eyewall.  A larger, outer eyewall surrounded those features.

Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the concentric eyewalls in the middle of Typhoon Bavi.  Storms near the center of Bavi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  However, the removal of mass in the upper levels was less that the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Monday.

The circulation around Typhoon Bavi grew even larger on Monday as the eyewall replacement cycle was underway.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Bavi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 300 miles (480 km) from the center of Typhoon Bavi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bavi is 33.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 36.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 69.7. Typhoon Bavi is similar in intensity to Hurricane Ian when Ian hit Southwest Florida in 2022.  Typhoon Bavi is much larger than Ian was.

Typhoon Bavi will more through an environment that will be favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Bavi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The eyewall replacement cycle currently underway will cause Typhoon Bavi to weaken during the next few hours.  Bavi could strengthen again after the eyewall replacement cycle is completed.

Typhoon Bavi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Bavi toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Bavi will approach the southern Ryukyu Islands and Taiwan in less than four days.

Tropical Storm Mekkhala Nears Southern Ryukyu Islands

Tropical Storm Mekkhala was nearing the southern Ryukyu Islands on Wednesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Mekkhala was located at latitude 24.1°N and longitude 125.6°E which put the center about 45 miles (75 km) south of Miyakojima, Japan.  Mekkhala was moving toward the north-northeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Former Typhoon Mekkhala weakened to a tropical storm as it approached the southern Ryukyu Islands on Wednesday.  An upper level ridge over China continued to produce northeasterly winds that blew toward the top of Mekkhala’s circulation.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear caused former Typhoon Mekkhala to weaken to a tropical storm.

The northeasterly winds in the upper levels also continued to blow the tops off of many of the thunderstorms that tried to form in the northern half of Tropical Storm Mekkhala.  A few more thunderstorms did develop near the center of Mekkhala’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Storm Mekkhala.  Bands in the northern half of Mekkhala still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Mekkhala generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the typhoon.  However, the removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure continued to increase on Wednesday.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Storm Mekkhala increased a little on Wednesday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 165 miles (265 km) from the center of Mekkhala’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Mekkhala will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Mekkhala will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  However, the upper level ridge over China will continue to cause vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear may be a little less on Thursday.  Tropical Storm Mekkhala could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours if the vertical wind shear is a little less.

Tropical Storm Mekkhala will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Mekkhala toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Mekkhala will pass over Miyakojima during the next few hours.  Mekkhala could be near Okinawa in 12 hours.

Tropical Storm Mekkhala will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the southern Ryukyu Islands including Ishigakijima and Miyakojima.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Mekkhala will also bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Okinawa.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, former Tropical Depression Higos strengthened back to a tropical storm on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Higos was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 137.1°E which put the center about 540 miles (870 km) south-southwest of Iwo To.  Higos was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.