Tropical Cyclone Rae formed northeast of Fiji on Sunday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 178.9°W which put the center about 200 miles (325 km) northeast of Suva, Fiji. Rae was moving toward the south-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.
A low pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean strengthened on Sunday and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Rae. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Rae was organizing rapidly on Sunday. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae. More thunderstorms also formed in the bands revolving around the center of Rae’s circulation. Storms near the center of Rae generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.
The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Rae became more symmetrical on Sunday. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center of Rae’s circulation.
Tropical Cyclone Rae will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Rae. will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge near Fiji. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Rae will intensify during the next 24 hours.
Tropical Cyclone Rae will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Rae toward the south during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Rae will move over the islands of eastern Fiji. The center of Rae’s circulation will pass east of Vanua Levu.
Tropical Cyclone Rae will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Lau Group of islands. The center of center of Rae’s circulation could pass near Vanna Balavu. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.