Tag Archives: Mona

Tropical Cyclone Mona Turns Back Toward Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Mona turned back toward Fiji on Saturday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mona was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 179.2°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) north of Suva, Fiji.  Mona was moving toward the east-southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

After being strongly sheared and making a slow clockwise loop on Friday, Tropical Cyclone Mona resumed a course toward Fiji on Saturday.  An upper level trough west of Fiji was producing northwesterly winds which were blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Mona.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were also causing the distribution of thunderstorms around Mona to be asymmetrical.  The strongest thunderstorms and winds were occurring in bands southeast of the center of circulation.  Bands in the other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Cyclone Mona will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Mona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level trough west of Fiji will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear which will inhibit development.  Tropical Cyclone Mona could strengthen a little bit on Sunday, but it is likely to remain close to its current intensity.

The upper trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Mona toward the south-southeast during the next 12 hours.  The trough is forecast to cutoff and make a transition to an upper low.  The low will steer Mona more toward the south between 12 and 36 hours into the future.  Tropical Cyclone Mona will turn more toward the southwest on Monday.  On its anticipated track the center of Mona will pass near the northeastern end of Vanua Levu in about 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Mona will bring wind and rain to Vanua Levu and the eastern islands of Fiji.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Penny was moving over the Coral Sea back toward Queensland.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Penny was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 154.8°E which put it about 605 miles (980 km) east of Cairns.  Penny was moving toward the southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Mona Stalls North of Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Mona stalled north of Fiji on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mona was located at latitude 13.3°S and longitude 176.3°E which put it about 365 miles (590 km) north-northwest of Suva, Fiji.  Mona was moving toward the north-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Northerly winds blowing around the western end of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean strengthened on Friday.  Those upper level winds blew across the top of Tropical Cyclone Mona and they caused strong vertical wind shear.  The wind shear blew the upper portion of the circulation south of the circulation in the lower and middle levels of Tropical Cyclone Mona.  As a result, Mona was steered by the winds lower in the atmosphere, which caused it to stall.

New thunderstorms were redeveloping near the center of Tropical Cyclone Mona.  However, many of the bands revolving around the center of Mona still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The strong upper level winds were shearing the tops off of many of the thunderstorms that developed.  The upper level winds were also preventing the storms near the center of circulation from generating upper level divergence.

Tropical Cyclone Mona could intensify if the upper level winds weaken.  Mona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce northerly winds, but those winds are forecast to weaken a little during the weekend.  If the upper level winds weaken and the vertical wind shear lessens, the Tropical Cyclone Mona could strengthen.  However, if the stronger upper level winds persist, then Mona could weaken further.

Tropical Cyclone Mona will meander north of Fiji as long as the wind shear prevents the development of a core of taller thunderstorms.  If Mona strengthens as forecast, then the upper level ridge will steer the tropical cyclone toward the south.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Mona could approach Fiji in about 48 hours.  Some guidance is suggesting the Mona could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at that time.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Penny was meandering over the Coral Sea.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Penny was located at latitude 15.9°S and longitude 155.8°E which put it about 670 miles (1080 km) east of Cairns,, Australia.  Penny was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Mona Forms North of Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Mona formed north of Fiji on Wednesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mona was located at latitude 11.6°S and longitude 178.1°E which put it about 460 miles (745 km) north of Suva, Fiji.  Mona was moving toward the south-southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation formed within an area of thunderstorms north of Fiji and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Mona.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Mona was still organizing.  There was a small cluster of thunderstorms around the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming and those bands were revolving around the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Mona will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next two days.  Mona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move around the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce northerly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear.  The shear will inhibit strengthening, but it will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Mona will intensify during the next 36 to 48 hours and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

The upper level ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Mona toward the south-southeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Mona could approach Fiji in 36 to 48 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Mona could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it nears Fiji.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Penny was reorganizing over the Coral Sea east of Queensland.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Penny was located at latitude 14.2°S and longitude 152.2°E which put it about 470 miles (760 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia.  Penny was moving toward the east-southeast at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.