Tag Archives: Nadi

Two Tropical Lows Form over South Pacific

Two tropical lows formed over the South Pacific Ocean on Saturday morning. The first Tropical Low formed over the Coral Sea east of the Cape York Peninsula. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of that Tropical Low was located at latitude 13.0°S and longitude 147.8°E which put it about 240 miles (350 km) northeast of Cooktown, Australia. The Tropical Low was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A well defined low level center of circulation formed in a small low pressure system over the Coral Sea on Saturday morning and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as a Tropical Low. A Watch was issued for the portion of the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Cape Grenville to Cape Tribulation. The distribution of thunderstorms around the Tropical Low was asymmetrical. The distribution of thunderstorms around the Tropical Low was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northwestern quadrant of the circulation. Bands in other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the Tropical Low.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The Tropical Low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge centered east of Australia. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the Tropical Low’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification. The Tropical Low could intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

The Tropical Low will move north of a high pressure system centered east of Australia. The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipate track the Tropical Low could approach the eastern Cape York Peninsula between Lockhart River and Cooktown in 36 hours. It could be a named tropical cyclone when it approaches the coast.

The second Tropical Low developed over the South Pacific Ocean west of Fiji. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of the second Tropical Low was located at latitude 18.6°S and longitude 173.3°E which put it about 320 miles (515 km) west-southwest of Nadi, Fiji. That Tropical Low was moving toward the southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed in a large low pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean west of Fiji and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as a tropical low. The circulation around the second Tropical Low was much larger than the one over the Coral Sea, but the distribution of thunderstorms was also asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands north and east of the center of circulation. Bands south and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from Tropical Low.

The second Tropical Low will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The Tropical Low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. The Tropical Low is likely to intensify into a named tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The second Tropical Low will be in an area where the steering currents are weak during the next 24 hours. It is likely to meander slowly over the South Pacific Ocean between Fiji and Vanuatu during the next day or so.

Tropical Cyclone Ana Forms Northwest of Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Ana formed northwest of Fiji on Friday afternoon. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ana was located at latitude 15.3°S and longitude 175.4°E which put it about 215 miles (345 km) northwest of Nadi, Fiji. Ana was moving toward the east at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A low pressure system northwest of Fiji strengthened on Friday afternoon and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Ana. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Ana. Thunderstorms also formed in bands in the eastern half of the tropical cyclone. Bands in the western side of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the north and east of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Ana will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the eastern end of an upper level ridge that is oriented from west to east. The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification at times. Tropical Cyclone Ana is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours, but the wind shear could limit strengthening.

Tropical Cyclone Ana will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Ana toward the southeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Ana could reach the northern coast of Vita Levu within 36 hours. Ana will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the Yasawa Group of islands first and then it will bring stormy conditions to Vita Levu and Vanua Levu. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Yasa strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Yasa was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 174.5°E which put it about 285 miles (460 km) northwest of Nadi, Fiji. Yasa was moving toward the east at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 915 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale northwest of Fiji on Tuesday night. An eye with at diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was at the center of Yasa. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Yasa. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Yasa. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Yasa was 35.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 54.3. Tropical Cyclone Yasa was capable of causing regional catastrophic damage.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa will move through an environment capable of sustaining an intense tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Yasa will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Yasa will remain an intense tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form. If that happens, then an eyewall replacement cyclone could cause Yasa to start to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system near the Equator. The high will steer Yasa toward the southeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Yasa could reach Fiji in less than 36 hours. Yasa will be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches Fiji. The center of Tropical Cyclone Yasa could pass over Vanua Levu. Yasa could bring very strong winds and locally heavy rain to the some of the most populated parts of Fiji. Tropical Cyclone Yasa could cause severe damage to Fiji.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, the center of Tropical Cyclone Zazu was moving away from of Niue. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Zazu was located at latitude 21.7°S and longitude 169.6°W which put it about 130 miles (210 km) south of Niue. Zazu was moving toward the southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Yasa rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Tuesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Yasa was located at latitude 14.7°S and longitude 173.8°E which put it about 320 miles (515 km) northwest of Nadi, Fiji. Yasa was moving toward the east at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 922 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale northwest of Fiji on Tuesday. An eye with at diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was at the center of Yasa. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Yasa. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Yasa. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Yasa was 33.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 48.1. Tropical Cyclone Yasa was capable of causing regional severe damage.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Yasa will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Yasa is could strengthen into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane during the next 24 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form. If that happens, then an eyewall replacement cyclone could cause Yasa to start to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system near the Equator. The high will steer Yasa toward the southeast during the next two days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Yasa could approach Fiji in 36 hours. Yasa will be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches Fiji. The center of Tropical Cyclone Yasa could pass between Vanua Levu and Viti Levu. Yasa could bring very strong winds and locally heavy rain to the most populated parts of Fiji. Tropical Cyclone Yasa could cause severe damage to Fiji.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, the center of Tropical Cyclone Zazu passed southwest of Niue. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Zazu was located at latitude 20.6°S and longitude 170.7°W which put it about 115 miles (185 km) southwest of Niue. Zazu was moving toward the southeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa Intensifies Northwest of Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Yasa intensified northwest of Fiji on Monday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Yasa was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 172.5°E which put it about 350 miles (565 km) west-northwest of Nadi, Fiji. Yasa was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa intensified into the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale northwest of Fiji on Monday. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) developed at the center of Yasa. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Yasa. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Yasa will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Yasa is likely to intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system near the Equator. The high will steer Yasa toward the southeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Yasa could approach Fiji in 48 hours. Yasa is very likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches Fiji.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Zazu continued to bring wind and rain to the Vava’u Group of Islands in Tonga. A weather station at Lupepau’u airport in Vava’u reported at sustained wind speed of 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and a wind gust of 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Zazu was located at latitude 19.0°S and longitude 173.7°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) south-southeast of Neiafu, Tonga. Zazu was moving toward the southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Zazu Brings Wind and Rain to Northern Tonga

Tropical Cyclone Zazu brought wind and rain to northern Tonga on Monday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Zazu was located at latitude 18.9°S and longitude 174.4°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) west of Neiafu, Tonga. Zazu was moving toward the south-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Zazu brought wind and rain to the Vava’u Group of islands in northern Tonga on Monday. The circulation around Zazu was intensifying. The inner end of a rainband wrapped partly around the eastern side of the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Zazu. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) on the eastern side of Zazu. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) in the western half of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Zazu will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Zazu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move south of an upper level trough over the South Pacific Ocean. The trough will produce westerly winds which will blow toward the top of Zazu. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and they are contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. The shear will inhibit intensification of Tropical Cyclone Zazu, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Zazu from intensifying. Tropical Cyclone Zazu could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours. The vertical wind shear will increase in a day or so, and Zazu will start to weaken when that happens.

The upper level trough will start to steer Tropical Cyclone Zazu toward the southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Zazu will move between Tonga and Niue. Tropical Cyclone Zazu will continue to cause gusty winds and heavy rain over parts of Tonga during the next 24 hours. Rainbands on the eastern side of Zazu could affect Niue on Tuesday.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Yasa strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon west-northwest of Fiji. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Yasa was located at latitude 15.5°S and longitude 171.6°E which put it about 400 miles (640 km) west-northwest of Nadi, Fiji. Yasa was moving toward the north-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb. Tropical Cyclone Yasa is forecast to move toward Fiji and to intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa Strengthens between Fiji and Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Yasa strengthened between Fiji and Vanuatu on Sunday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Yasa was located at latitude 15.7°S and longitude 172.1°E which put it about 380 miles (610 km) west-northwest of Nadi, Fiji. Yasa was moving toward the west-southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa strengthened on Sunday after the circulation of former Tropical Cyclone 04P was absorbed by the larger circulation around Yasa. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern side of the center of circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Yasa. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa will be in an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days. Yasa will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Yasa will likely intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 18 hours. It could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane in about three days.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours. Yasa is forecast to make a slow clockwise loop during the next 24 to 36 hours. Eventually, a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean will start to steer Tropical Cyclone Yasa toward the southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Yasa could approach Fiji in about four days.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone 06P developed north of Tonga. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone 06P was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 173.9°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) north of Neiafu, Tonga. It was moving toward the south-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Developing East of Vanuatu

A tropical cyclone was developing east of Vanuatu on Friday night. The large low pressure system contained two smaller circulation. One circulation was already designated at Tropical Cyclone 04P by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone 04P was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 175.8°E which put it about 220 miles (360 km) north-northwest of Nadi, Fiji. It was moving toward the west-southwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A second larger circulation designated Invest 91P was located northwest of Tropical Cyclone 04P. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Invest 91P was located at latitude 12.6°S and longitude 170.1°E which put it about 310 miles (500 km) east-northeast of Vanuatu. It was moving toward the east at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Cyclone 04P and Invest 91P will rotate around each other during the next several days. The circulation around Invest 91P was larger, but the wind speeds were weaker. Upper level divergence from Invest 91P was creating vertical wind shear over Tropical Cyclone 04P. The shear was inhibiting the intensification of Tropical Cyclone 04P. The two circulations are forecast to eventually merge, but numerical models differ on which circulation will become the dominant center of circulation.

The larger environment around Tropical Cyclone 04P and Invest 91P will be favorable for intensification after the two circulations merge. The merged tropical cyclone will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Once Tropical Cyclone 04P and Invest 91P consolidate into a single circulation, then the tropical cyclone will intensify. It could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon early next week.

Tropical Cyclone 04P and Invest 91P will rotate clockwise around each other during the weekend. The overall circulation containing the two systems is forecast to drift slowly toward the south during the next several days. On its forecast track the developing tropical cyclone will move slowly toward the south between Fiji and Vanuatu.

Tropical Cyclone Harold Approaches Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Harold approached Fiji on Tuesday morning.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Harold was located at latitude 17.4°S and longitude 173.4°E which put it about 270 miles (435 km) west of Nadi, Fiji.  Harold was moving toward the east-southeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 943 mb.

Although the maximum sustained wind speed in Tropical Cyclone Harold decreased, the area of stronger winds increased.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Harold.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Harold was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 22.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.7.  Tropical Cyclone Harold was capable of causing major damage.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Harold increased in size on Tuesday.  The previous small eye was no longer visible on satellite imagery, but the most recent images suggested that a larger eye could be developing that the center of circulation.  The newly forming eye was surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Harold.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Harold will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Harold will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but they will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Harold could strengthen during the next 12 to 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Harold will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Harold toward the east-southeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Harold could reach Fiji within 12 hours.  Harold will be capable of causing major wind damage.  It will drop heavy rain and flash floods are likely.  Tropical Cyclone Harold could reach Tonga within 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Sarai Brings Wind and Rain to Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Sarai brought wind and rain to Fiji in Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Sarai was located at latitude 19.3°S and longitude 177.0°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) west-southwest of Kadavu, Fiji.  Sarai was moving toward the southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Sarai passed west of Nadi, Fiji on Friday, but rainbands in the eastern side of the circulation produced gusty winds and heavy rain.  A surface weather station in Nadi measured a sustained wind speed of 44 m.p.h. (70 km/h) and wind gusts of 67 m.p.h. (107 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Sarai continued to intensify on Friday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped much of the way around the center of circulation.  The rainband had not wrapped entirely around the northwestern part of the center,  A clear area at the center began to appear on satellite images, which could be evidence of formation of an eye.  Storms around the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Sarai was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of Sarai.

Tropical Cyclone Sarai will move through an environment favorable for intensification for another 24 to 36 hours.  Sarai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce westerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but it will not be strong enough to keep Tropical Cyclone Sarai from strengthening into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Sarai will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Sarai toward the east.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Sarai will pass south of Suva, Fiji.  The core of Sarai will pass near Kadavu, Fiji in about 12 to 18 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Sarai will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Kadavu.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.