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Tropical Cyclone Tiffany Strengthens East of Cape York Peninsula

Tropical Cyclone Tiffany strengthened east of the Cape York Peninsula on Sunday morning. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tiffany was located at latitude 13.9°S and longitude 145.9°E which put it about 120 miles (190 km) north-northeast of Cooktown, Australia. Tropical Cyclone was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (14 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Cape Grenville to Cape Tribulation. A Watch was in effect for the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Gilbert River Mouth to Mapoon.

A former Tropical Low east of the Cape York Peninsula strengthened quickly on Sunday morning and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Tiffany. More Thunderstorms developed near the center of Tiffany’s circulation. More thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Tiffany. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tiffany.

Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Tiffany will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge centered east of Australia. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the Tropical Low’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. The center of Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will pass near Cape Melville in 12 hours. If some of the circulation on the southern side of Tiffany passes over land, that could inhibit intensification.

Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will move north of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Tiffany toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will pass just north of Cape Melville in 12 hours. Tiffany will make landfall on the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula east of Coen within 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northern Queensland. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone 05P was spinning between Fiji and Vanuatu. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone 05P was located at latitude 18.9°S and longitude 176.3°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) west of Tavuki, Fiji. Tropical Cyclone 05P was moving toward the east-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Two Tropical Lows Form over South Pacific

Two tropical lows formed over the South Pacific Ocean on Saturday morning. The first Tropical Low formed over the Coral Sea east of the Cape York Peninsula. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of that Tropical Low was located at latitude 13.0°S and longitude 147.8°E which put it about 240 miles (350 km) northeast of Cooktown, Australia. The Tropical Low was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A well defined low level center of circulation formed in a small low pressure system over the Coral Sea on Saturday morning and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as a Tropical Low. A Watch was issued for the portion of the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Cape Grenville to Cape Tribulation. The distribution of thunderstorms around the Tropical Low was asymmetrical. The distribution of thunderstorms around the Tropical Low was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northwestern quadrant of the circulation. Bands in other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the Tropical Low.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The Tropical Low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge centered east of Australia. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the Tropical Low’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification. The Tropical Low could intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

The Tropical Low will move north of a high pressure system centered east of Australia. The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipate track the Tropical Low could approach the eastern Cape York Peninsula between Lockhart River and Cooktown in 36 hours. It could be a named tropical cyclone when it approaches the coast.

The second Tropical Low developed over the South Pacific Ocean west of Fiji. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of the second Tropical Low was located at latitude 18.6°S and longitude 173.3°E which put it about 320 miles (515 km) west-southwest of Nadi, Fiji. That Tropical Low was moving toward the southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed in a large low pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean west of Fiji and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as a tropical low. The circulation around the second Tropical Low was much larger than the one over the Coral Sea, but the distribution of thunderstorms was also asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands north and east of the center of circulation. Bands south and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from Tropical Low.

The second Tropical Low will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The Tropical Low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. The Tropical Low is likely to intensify into a named tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The second Tropical Low will be in an area where the steering currents are weak during the next 24 hours. It is likely to meander slowly over the South Pacific Ocean between Fiji and Vanuatu during the next day or so.

Tropical Cyclone Kimi Forms Near Queensland

Tropical Storm Kimi formed near the coast of Queensland on Saturday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kimi was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 146.4°E which put it about 145 miles (235 km) north-northeast of Cairns, Australia. Kimi was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (9 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Cape Melville to Cardwell. The Warning included Cooktown, Port Douglas and Cairns.

The circulation around a small low pressure system near the coast of Queensland strengthened quickly on Saturday night and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Kimi. The circulation around Kimi was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Kimi.

Tropical Cyclone Kimi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Kimi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge east of Australia. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Kimi is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours. Kimi could strengthen rapidly because the circulation is small.

Tropical Cyclone Kimi will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system east of Australia. The high will steer Kimi toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Kimi will approach the coast of Queensland between Cooktown and Port Douglas in less than 24 hours. Kimi could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon or a strong tropical storm when it approaches the coast.

Weaker Tropical Cyclone Ann Nears Northern Queensland

A weaker Tropical Cyclone Ann neared northern Queensland on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ann was located at latitude 14.4°S and longitude 148.4°E which put it about 230 miles (370 km) east-northeast of Cooktown, Australia.  Ann was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Tropical Cyclone Warning that extended from Lockhart River to Cooktown including Coen and Lizard Island.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Ann weakened on Monday because of a drier, more stable environment and more vertical wind shear.  Low level convergence pulled drier, more stable air closer to the center of Tropical Cyclone Ann.  The drier, more stable air caused many of the stronger thunderstorms to weaken.  Despite the drier, more stable environment stronger thunderstorms redeveloped south of the center of circulation late on Monday.  Tropical Cyclone Ann was moving near the northwestern portion of an upper level ridge.  The ridge produced easterly winds which caused moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear also contributed to the weakening of storms in the northern half of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ann continued to have a distinct low level center of circulation despite the less favorable environment.  However, the wind field exhibited a more asymmetric structure.  The strongest winds were occurring in an area of thunderstorms south of the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center in the southern half of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center in the northern half of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ann will continue to move through a less favorable environment during the next 24 hours.  Ann will move over water in the Coral Sea where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27.5°C.  It will continue to move through a region where there is drier, more stable air and the upper level ridge will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The drier, more stable air and moderate vertical wind shear will prevent significant intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Ann could maintain its intensity during the next 12 hours, but it may weaken when it approaches the coast of the Cape York Peninsula.

Tropical Cyclone Ann will move north of a ridge which will steer Ann toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Ann will make landfall on the Cape York Peninsula in northern Queensland in about 24 hours.  Ann will bring some gusty winds, but the greatest risk will be locally heavy rain.