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Tropical Cyclone 24P Forms over the Coral Sea

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Tropical Cyclone 24P formed over the Coral Sea on Tuesday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 24P was located at latitude 14.3°S and longitude 150.6°E which put the center about 380 miles (615 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia.  Tropical Cyclone 24P was moving toward the south-southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Watch for the portion of the coast from Cooktown to Lucinda.  The Watch included Port Douglas, Cairns, Innisfail and Palm Island.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea strengthened on Tuesday night and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the system as Tropical Cyclone 24P.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology was designating the system as Tropical Low 29U.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone 24P was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the tropical cyclone’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Tropical Cyclone 24P began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone 24P.

Tropical Cyclone 24P will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that extended from the Coral Sea to over Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone 24P will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 24 P will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Coral Sea.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone 24P will approach the coast of Queensland near Cairns in two days.

Tropical Cyclone 24P will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Queensland near Cairns.  Heavy rain could cause flooding in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for the parts of the Cape York Peninsula, the Central Coast, Capricornia, and Carpentaria catchments.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper Prompts Warning for Queensland

A potential risk posed by Tropical Cyclone Jasper prompted the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to issue a Tropical Cyclone Warning for a portion of the coast of Queensland on Sunday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 149.8°E which put it about 300 miles (480 km) east-southeast of Cairns, Australia. Jasper was moving toward the west-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cooktown to Townsville, Australia. The Tropical Cyclone Warning included Cairns, Innisfail and Palm Island. A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Melville to Cooktown, Australia. The Tropical Cyclone Watch included Palmerville and Chillagoe.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper weakened on Sunday as it continued to move closer to Queensland. Jasper moved into a region of sinking, drier air. The drier air mixed with the rainbands revolving around the center of Jasper’s circulation. The drier air reduced the relative humidity and most of the thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Jasper dissipated. Bands revolving around the center of circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Cyclone Jasper still had a large, symmetrical circulation in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 220 miles (350 km) from the center of Jasper’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jasper will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, Jasper will still be in the region of drier air. The drier air will continue to inhibit the formation of thunderstorms. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could intensify a little during the next 24 hours, if new thunderstorms develop near the center of circulation. On the other hand, if no new thunderstorms develop, then Jasper could weaken a little more.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the Coral Sea and Eastern Australia. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper will reach the coast of Queensland between Cairns and Cooktown in 48 hours.