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Tropical Cyclone Seru Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Seru strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Pacific Ocean between Vanuatu and Fiji on Tuesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seru was located at latitude 18.2°S and longitude 171.3°E which put the center about 190 miles (310 km) east of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Seru was moving toward the south-southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seru rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Pacific Ocean between Vanuatu and Fiji on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of the center of Seru’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Seru.  Storms near the center of Seru generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The inner core of Tropical Cyclone Seru was exhibiting more organization.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Seru’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Seru.

Tropical Cyclone Seru will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Seru will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that extends from Vanuatu to Fiji.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Seru will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Seru will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Seru toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Seru will remain between Vanuatu and Fiji.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Rae was weakening rapidly as it passed southwest of Tonga.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae was located at latitude 24.1°S and longitude 178.0°W which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) southwest of Nuku Alofa, Tonga.  Rae was moving toward the south-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Rae Moves Away From Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Rae moved away from Fiji on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae was located at latitude 22.1°S and longitude 178.2°W which put the center about 235 miles (385 km) west-southwest of Nuku Alofa, Tonga.  Rae was moving toward the south-southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Rae moved south of Fiji on Monday.  There were reports of wind damage and floods from some of the islands in eastern Fiji.  Rae was passing west of Tonga on Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Rae intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it moved across eastern Fiji.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Rae’s circulation.  A circular eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae.  There was a ring of thunderstorms around the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Rae’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Rae generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Rae increased a little on Monday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Rae’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 145 miles (235 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rae will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is southeast of New Caledonia.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Rae’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  The combination of cooler water and more vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Rae to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough southeast of New Caledonia will steer Tropical Cyclone Rae toward the southeast during the next 24h hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Rae will pass well to the south of Tonga.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone 21P formed between Vanuatu and Fiji.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone 21P was located at latitude 16.6°S and longitude 170.7°W which put the center about 180 miles (290 km) east-northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Tropical Cyclone 21P was moving toward the southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

 

Tropical Cyclone Rae Brings Wind and Rain to Eastern Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Rae brought wind and rain to eastern Fiji on Sunday night.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae was located at latitude 18.2°S and longitude 179.4°W which put the center about 55 miles (90 km) east-northeast of Moala, Fiji.  Rae was moving toward the south-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Rae brought strong winds and heavy rain to parts of eastern Fiji on Sunday night.  Rae passed over the Lau Group of islands.  The center of Tropical Cyclone Rae passed near Naitaba, Vanna Balavu, Mago, and Cicia.

Tropical Cyclone Rae intensified as it passed over eastern Fiji.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Rae’s circulation.  An eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae.  A ring thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Rae became more circular on Sunday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Rae’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rae will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge near Fiji. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Rae is likely to intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rae toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Rae will move over the southern islands of in the Lau Group.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will bring continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Lau Group of islands.  The center of center of Rae’s circulation will pass near Moala, Totoya, and Mataku.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Rae Forms Northeast of Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Rae formed northeast of Fiji on Sunday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 178.9°W which put the center about 200 miles (325 km) northeast of Suva, Fiji.  Rae was moving toward the south-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean strengthened on Sunday and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Rae.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Rae was organizing rapidly on Sunday.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae.  More thunderstorms also formed in the bands revolving around the center of Rae’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Rae generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Rae became more symmetrical on Sunday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center of Rae’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rae. will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge near Fiji. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Rae will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rae toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Rae will move over the islands of eastern Fiji.  The center of Rae’s circulation will pass east of Vanua Levu.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Lau Group of islands.  The center of center of Rae’s circulation could pass near Vanna Balavu.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Former Tropical Cyclone Esther Drops Heavy Rain Over Northwestern Australia

Former Tropical Cyclone Esther dropped heavy rain over parts of northwestern Australia on Wednesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Esther was located at latitude 15.3°S and longitude 130.8°E which put it about 240 miles (390 km) south of Darwin, Australia.  Esther was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Cyclone Esther remained very well organized on Wednesday even though it had been moving across northern Australia for several days.  There was a distinct low level center of circulation.  The circulation was surrounded by bands of showers and thunderstorms.  Strong thunderstorms developed south of Darwin in a band in the northern part of the circulation.  The Darwin harbor reported a wind gust of 44 m.p.h. (72 km/h).  The Wyndham airport reported a wind gust of 39 m.p.h. (63 km/h).

Former Tropical Cyclone Esther could strengthen back into a tropical cyclone if the center of circulation moves over the South Indian Ocean west of Australia.  Esther will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  The Sea Surface Temperature near the west coast of Australia is near 30°C.  Esther will move under an upper level ridge where the winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Former Tropical Cyclone Esther could intensify rapidly if the center of circulation moves completely over water.

Former Tropical Cyclone Esther will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Australia during the next several days.  The high will steer Esther toward the west during the next 24 to 48 hours.  It will turn more toward the south when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track the center of former Tropical Cyclone Esther will pass near the southern end of the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ferdinand churned northwest of Australia.  At 10:00 p.m. EST the center of Tropical Cyclone Ferdinand was located at latitude 16.6°S and longitude 114.3°E which put it about 400 miles (645 km) north of Learmonth, Australia.  Ferdinand was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ferdinand Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Ferdinand strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Monday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ferdinand was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 117.0°E which put it about 520 miles (840 km) north-northeast of Learmonth, Australia.  Ferdinand was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Ferdinand exhibited much greater organization on Monday.  A very small circular eye formed at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Storms around the eye generated upper level divergence which was pumping mass away form the tropical cyclone.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Ferdinand.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (100 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Ferdinand will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Ferdinand will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia.  The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Ferdinand will continue intensify and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ferdinand will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high will steer Ferdinand slowly toward the west-southwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Ferdinand will remain well to the northwest of Western Australia.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Esther was moving westward over the Northern Territory of Australia.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Esther was located at latitude 17.3°S and longitude 135.4°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) east of Newcastle Waters, Australia.  Esther was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.  Tropical Cyclone Esther was dropping locally heavy rain over parts of the Northern Territory.  A Flood Watch was in effect for the Coastal Carpentaria Rivers, Barkly and the Western Top End.

Tropical Cyclone Esther Makes Landfall in Northern Australia

Tropical Cyclone Esther made landfall in northern Australia just to the east of the border between Queensland and the Northern Territory on Sunday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Esther was located at latitude 16.7°S and longitude 137.9°E which put it about 65 miles (105 km) west of Mornington Island.  Esther was moving toward the west-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

A Warning remained in effect for the portion of the coast from Port McArthur to Karumba, Australia including Borroloola and Mornington Island.

Tropical Cyclone Esther was intensifying slowly when it made landfall just east of the border between Queensland and the Northern Territory of Australia.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.  A weather station at Mornington Island reported a sustained wind speed of 35 m.p.h. (57 km/h) and a wind gust of 54 m.p.h. (87 km/h).  The station measured 6.77 inches (172 mm) of rain.

Tropical Cyclone Esther will weaken as it moves inland.  Esther will move north of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high will steer Tropical Cyclone Esther toward the west during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Esther will move across the Northern Territory.  Tropical Cyclone Esther will drop locally heavy rain and it could cause flash floods in some locations.  There is a potential for Esther to strengthen again in a few days when it moves over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Ferdinand developed over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Ferdinand was located at latitude 13.8°S and longitude 117.8°E which put it about 450 miles (750 km) north of Port Hedland, Australia.  Ferdinand was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.  Tropical Cyclone Ferdinand is forecast to move toward the west-southwest and to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Esther Develops Over Southern Gulf of Carpentaria

Tropical Cyclone Esther developed over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria on Sunday.  At 1:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Esther was located at latitude 16.0°S and longitude 139.1°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) north of Mornington Island.  Esther was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a warning for the portion of the coast from Port Roper to Gilbert River Mouth including Borroloola and Mornington Island.

A Tropical Low over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria strengthened into Tropical Cyclone Esther on Sunday.  The circulation around Esther was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 125 miles (200 km) from the center of circulation.  There were a few thunderstorms near the center.  Most of the thunderstorms were in two large bands in the outer part of the circulation.  One of the bands was south of the center of Tropical Cyclone Esther and the other band was north of the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Esther will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Esther will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under and upper level ridge.  The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Esther could make intensify before it makes landfall on the coast of Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Esther will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system during the next 12 to 24 hours.  The high will steer Esther toward the southwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Esther could make landfall on the coast of Australia near the border between Queensland and the Northern Territory in about 12 hours.  Esther will bring gusty winds to coastal locations.  Tropical Cyclone Esther is already dropping locally heavy rain over far northwestern Queensland and the eastern part of the Northern Territory.  Flood watches have been issued for river basins near the Gulf of Carpentaria.  Esther could move westward across the Northern Territory after it makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Keni Brings Winds and Rain to Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Keni brought wind and rain to Fiji on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Keni was located at latitude 19.4°S and longitude 178.0°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) west-southwest of Suva, Fiji.  Keni was moving toward the east-southeast at 21 m.p.h. (34 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Keni intensified rapidly on Monday into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.  A primary rainband wrapped tightly around the center of circulation and a small eye formed at the center.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Keni.  The strongest bands were east and south of the center of circulation.  Storms in the core of Keni were generating upper level divergence which was pumping away mass to the east of the tropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 155 miles (250 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Keni will remain in an environment favorable for intensification for about another 12 to 18 hours.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  Keni is moving under the southwestern portion of an upper level ridge which is producing northwesterly winds which blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification during the next few hours.  Tropical Cyclone Keni will move under strong upper level winds in about 12 to 18 hours and then the wind shear will increase.  Increased wind shear will cause Keni to start to weaken.

The ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone Keni toward the east-southeast and that general motion is expected to continue for another 12 to 18 hours.  An upper level trough approaching from the west will steer Keni more toward the southeast after that time.  On its anticipated track the core and strongest part of Tropical Cyclone Keni will pass southwest of Fiji.  However, clockwise flow around Keni will continue to cause gusty winds and drop heavy rain on Fiji.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods.  Keni could bring wind and rain to Tonga in 18 to 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Keni Forms East of Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Keni formed east of Vanuatu on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Keni was located at latitude 16.9°S and longitude 172.0°E which put it about 215 miles (350 km) east of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Keni was moving toward the east-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A distinct center of circulation consolidated in an area of showers and thunderstorms between Vanuatu and Fiji on Sunday and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Keni.   The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Keni organized quickly.  Several bands of thunderstorms wrapped part of the way around the center of circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Keni will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Keni will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It is under a small upper level ridge and the upper level winds are weak.  So, there will be little vertical wind shear on Monday.  Tropical Cyclone Keni will intensify during the next 24 hours and it could become the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Keni on the southwestern edge of a subtropical ridge which is steering Keni toward the east-southeast.  A general motion toward the east-southeast is expected to continue for another 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Keni could be approaching Fiji within 24 hours.  Keni could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it near Fiji.  Keni will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Fiji.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.