Tag Archives: 21P

Tropical Cyclone Seru Weakens Southeast of Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Seru weakened as it moved southeast of Vanuatu on Wednesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seru was located at latitude 21.1°S and longitude 170.7°E which put the center about 260 miles (420 km) south-southeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Seru was moving toward the south at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seru weakened as it moved southeast of Vanuatu on Wednesday.  An upper level trough south of New Caledonia produced northwesterly winds that blew to toward the top of Seru’s circulation.  Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Seru to become asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and southern parts of Seru’s circulation.  Bands in the northern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Seru consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Seru increased as Seru moved farther south.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 145 miles (235 km) from the center of Seru’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Seru will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Seru will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  The upper level trough south of New Caledonia will continue to cause moderate to strong vertical wind shear over Tropical Cyclone Seru.  The combination of cooler water and moderate to strong vertical wind shear will cause Seru to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough south of New Caledonia will steer Tropical Cyclone Seru toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Seru will move farther away from Vanuatu.

Tropical Cyclone Seru Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Seru strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Pacific Ocean between Vanuatu and Fiji on Tuesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seru was located at latitude 18.2°S and longitude 171.3°E which put the center about 190 miles (310 km) east of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Seru was moving toward the south-southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seru rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Pacific Ocean between Vanuatu and Fiji on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of the center of Seru’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Seru.  Storms near the center of Seru generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The inner core of Tropical Cyclone Seru was exhibiting more organization.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Seru’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Seru.

Tropical Cyclone Seru will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Seru will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that extends from Vanuatu to Fiji.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Seru will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Seru will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Seru toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Seru will remain between Vanuatu and Fiji.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Rae was weakening rapidly as it passed southwest of Tonga.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae was located at latitude 24.1°S and longitude 178.0°W which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) southwest of Nuku Alofa, Tonga.  Rae was moving toward the south-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Rae Moves Away From Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Rae moved away from Fiji on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae was located at latitude 22.1°S and longitude 178.2°W which put the center about 235 miles (385 km) west-southwest of Nuku Alofa, Tonga.  Rae was moving toward the south-southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Rae moved south of Fiji on Monday.  There were reports of wind damage and floods from some of the islands in eastern Fiji.  Rae was passing west of Tonga on Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Rae intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it moved across eastern Fiji.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Rae’s circulation.  A circular eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae.  There was a ring of thunderstorms around the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Rae’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Rae generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Rae increased a little on Monday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Rae’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 145 miles (235 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae.

Tropical Cyclone Rae will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rae will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is southeast of New Caledonia.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Rae’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  The combination of cooler water and more vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Rae to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough southeast of New Caledonia will steer Tropical Cyclone Rae toward the southeast during the next 24h hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Rae will pass well to the south of Tonga.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone 21P formed between Vanuatu and Fiji.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone 21P was located at latitude 16.6°S and longitude 170.7°W which put the center about 180 miles (290 km) east-northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Tropical Cyclone 21P was moving toward the southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.