Tropical Cyclone Kevin passed south of Fiji on Saturday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kevin was located at latitude 25.1°S and longitude 178.6°E which put it about 450 miles (720 km) south of Suva, Fiji. Kevin was moving toward the east-southeast at 26 m.p.h. (43 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Kevin started to weaken as it passed south of Fiji on Saturday. An upper level trough east of Australia was producing northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Kevin’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing Kevin to weaken. A large circular eye with a diameter of 50 miles (80 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Kevin. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. The vertical wind shear also caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Kevin to become asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Kevin. Bands in the northern half of Kevin consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The size of Tropical Cyclone Kevin’s circulation increased on Saturday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (325 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Kevin was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 20.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 42.5.

Tropical Cyclone Kevin will move through an environment that is unfavorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Kevin will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. An upper level trough east of Australia will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Kevin’s circulation. Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear during the next 48 hours. The strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Levin to weaken. Kevin will move over colder water during the next few days. A combination of strong vertical wind shear and colder water will cause Tropical Cyclone Kevin to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough east of Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Kevin toward the east-southeast during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Kevin will pass South of Tonga on Sunday.