Tropical Cyclone Freddy brought wind and rain to southwest Madagascar on Sunday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 23.8°S and longitude 43.0°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) west-southwest of Toliara, Madagascar. Freddy was moving toward the south-southwest at 4 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy brought wind and rain to southwest Madagascar on Sunday night, when the center of Freddy stalled just off the coast. An upper level trough over southern Africa was producing northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was affecting both the vertical and the horizontal structure of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The wind shear was causing the vertical structure of Freddy to tilt to the southeast with height. So, the center of circulation in the middle troposphere was southeast of the center near the surface. The wind shear was also causing the distribution of thunderstorms to be asymmetric. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Bands in the western side of Freddy’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be in an area where the steering currents are weak during the next 24 hours. The center of Freddy’s circulation is likely to meander just west of the coast of southwest Madagascar on Monday. Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Freddy will continue to drop heavy rain over southwest Madagascar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. A high pressure system south of Madagascar will start to push Freddy back toward the northwest in a day or so. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy could approach Mozambique by the end of the week.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be in an environment only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. However, the upper level trough over southern Africa will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification during the next 24 hours. The upper level winds will be weaker when Freddy moves northwest later this week. Tropical Cyclone Freddy is forecast to intensify when the wind shear decreases. Freddy could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the middle of the week.