Tag Archives: Futuna

Tropical Cyclone Urmil Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Urmil was bringing wind and rain to parts of southern Vanuatu on Friday morning.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Urmil was located at latitude 19.5°S and longitude 168.1°E which put the center about 120 miles (195 km) south of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Urmil was moving toward the southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean near Vanuatu strengthened on Thursday night and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Urmil.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil was intensifying rapidly on Friday morning.  Thunderstorms were forming near the center of Urmil’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also developing in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Urmil.  Storms near the center of Urmil generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and east of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Urmil was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Urmil’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Urmil will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge that is west of Vanuatu.  The upper level ridge will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Urmil’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Urmil will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Urmil will strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon today.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is south of Fiji.  The high pressure system will steer Urmil toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Urmil will move away from southern Vanuatu later today.  Urmil will pass south of Fiji during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Vanautu during the next few horus.  Strong winds and heavy rain will affect Erromango, Tanna, Aniwa, Futuna, and Aneityum.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Strong Tropical Cyclone Amos Heading Toward Samoa

Tropical Cyclone Amos strengthened as it passed over Iles Wallis and headed toward Samoa on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Amos was located at latitude 12.5°S and longitude 175.4°E which put it about 70 miles (115 km) north-northeast of Iles Wallis and about 360 miles (580 km) west-northwest of Pago Pago, Samoa.  Amos was moving toward the east at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

The core of the circulation of Tropical Cyclone Amos is small but it is well organized.  There is a ring of the thunderstorms around an eye, but clouds from the taller thunderstorms are obscuring the eye on conventional satellite imagery.  Multiple bands of thunderstorms are rotating around the core of the circulation.  The thunderstorms are generating well developed upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.

Tropical Cyclone Amos is an environment favorable for further intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The winds in the upper levels are weak and there is not much vertical wind shear.  Amos is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours and it could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches the western part of Samoa.

A ridge of high pressure is expected to steer Tropical Cyclone Amos toward the east-southeast during the nest several days.  On its anticipated track Amos could be approaching the western islands of Samoa in a little over 24 hours.  It could be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Amos is currently 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 9.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 26.8.  Those indices suggest that the core of Tropical Cyclone Amos will be capable of causing major damage if it moves directly over any of the islands of Samoa.  In addition, Amos will produce locally heavy rain capable of causing flash floods.  It could also generate high waves and surges along the coasts of some of the islands.