Tag Archives: Tropical Cyclone Urmil

Tropical Cyclone Urmil Moves Southeast of Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Urmil moved southeast of Vanuatu on Saturday morning.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Urmil was located at latitude 21.2°S and longitude 172.5°E which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) southeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Urmil was moving toward the east-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it moved over the South Pacific Ocean southeast of Vanuatu on Saturday morning.  Even though Urmil strengthened, the distribution of thunderstorms became more asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern and eastern sides of Tropical Cyclone Urmil.  Bands in the northern and western sides of Urmil’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

An upper level trough that was south of New Caledonia was producing northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Urmil.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Urmil.

The strongest winds were occurring north of the center of Tropical Cyclone Urmil.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northern side of Urmil’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Urmil.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Urmil will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.   The upper level trough that was south of New Caledonia will continue to produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Urmil’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause moderate to strong vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Urmil could intensify a little, if the upper level winds do not get any stronger.  Urmil is more likely to start to weaken during the weekend because of the vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will also cause Tropical Cyclone Urmil to begin a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough south of New Caledonia will steer Tropical Cyclone Urmil toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Urmil will pass south of Fiji.

 

Tropical Cyclone Urmil Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Urmil was bringing wind and rain to parts of southern Vanuatu on Friday morning.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Urmil was located at latitude 19.5°S and longitude 168.1°E which put the center about 120 miles (195 km) south of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Urmil was moving toward the southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean near Vanuatu strengthened on Thursday night and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Urmil.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil was intensifying rapidly on Friday morning.  Thunderstorms were forming near the center of Urmil’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also developing in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Urmil.  Storms near the center of Urmil generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and east of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Urmil was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Urmil’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Urmil will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge that is west of Vanuatu.  The upper level ridge will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Urmil’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Urmil will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Urmil will strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon today.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is south of Fiji.  The high pressure system will steer Urmil toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Urmil will move away from southern Vanuatu later today.  Urmil will pass south of Fiji during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Vanautu during the next few horus.  Strong winds and heavy rain will affect Erromango, Tanna, Aniwa, Futuna, and Aneityum.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.