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Tropical Cyclone Fina Crosses Cobourg Peninsula

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Tropical Cyclone Fina moved across the Cobourg Peninsula in northern Australia on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina was located at latitude 11.8°S and longitude 131.6°E which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) northeast of Darwin, Australia.   Fina was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Daly River Mouth to Cape Don, Australia.  The Warning includes Darwin.  A Warning is also in effect for the Tiwi Islands.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Wadeye to Daly River Mouth.

Tropical Cyclone Fina intensified a little after it crossed the Cobourg Peninsula and moved over the Van Dieman Gulf.  A small circular eye was at the center of Fina’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Fina.  Storms near the core of Fina generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fina was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Fina’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification while it moves over the Van Dieman Gulf during the next few hours. Fina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over northern Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Fina’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Fina could intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move around the western end of a high pressure system over northern Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Fina toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.   On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina will pass near Darwin in 12 hours.   Fina will move over the Timor Sea on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the coast of the Northern Territory of Australia.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Fina could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along parts of the coast of the Northern Territory.

Flood Watches are in effect for the North West Coastal Rivers.

Tropical Cyclone Fina Prompts Warning for North Coast of Australia

The risk posed by Tropical Cyclone Fina prompted the Australia Bureau of Meteorology to issue warnings and watches for portions of the northern coast of Australia on Tuesday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina was located at latitude 9.7°S and longitude 132.8°E which put the center about 225 miles (365 km) north-northeast of Darwin, Australia and about 105 miles (165 km) north of Minjilang, Australia.  Fina was moving toward the east at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Don to Warruwi, Australia including the Cobourg Peninsula and Minjilang.

A Watch is in effect for the Tiwi Islands.  A Watch is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Maningrida to Milingimbi, Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Fina strengthened as it moved over the Arafura Sea north of Australia on Tuesday night.  Thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of Fina’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina.  Storms near the center of Fina’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fina was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Fina’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move though a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Fina will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Fina could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move around the southern side of a narrow high pressure system that is near the Equator.  The high pressure system will steer Fina slowly toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fina will move parallel to the northern coast of Australia.  Fina will start to move south toward the coast of the Northern Territory of Australia on Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Fina is likely to reach the northern coast of the Northern Territory of Australia within 36 hours.  Fina will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the coast.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Fina could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along parts of the coast of the Northern Territory.

A Flood Watch is in effect for areas across the northwest Top End of Australia.

 

Tropical Cyclone Blake Makes Another Landfall in Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Blake made another landfall on the coast of Western Australia on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Blake was located at latitude 20.1°S and longitude 120.5°E which put it about 20 miles (35 km) south-southwest of Wallal Downs, Australia.  Blake was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 55 m.p.h. (90 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Blake moved across the coast of Western Australia just to the west of Wallal Downs on Tuesday.  Blake was beginning to weaken, but winds to tropical storm force were still occurring in the northwestern part of the circulation that was still over water.  A weather station at Bedout Island which is just off the coast of Western Australia was reporting a sustained wind speed of 43 m.p.h. (69 km/h) and wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (82 km/h).  A weather station in Mandora, Australia had already received 2.69 inches (64.4 mm) of rain from the rainbands in eastern side of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Blake will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Australia.  Blake will move more toward the south when it reaches the western end of the high.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Blake could be near Marble Bar in about 12 hours.  Blake could approach Newman in about 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Blake will weaken as it moves farther inland.  Blake could drop locally heavy rain over parts of Western Australia and the potential for flash floods exists.

Elsewhere, a Tropical Low was slowly organizing over the Arafura Sea north of Australia.  At 1:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 11.2°S and longitude 137.7°E which put it about 70 miles (115 km) north-northeast of Nhulunbuy, Australia.  The Tropical Low was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.  The Tropical Low is forecast to move westward and to strengthen.  A Watch has been issued for the portions of the coast from Cape Don to Point Stuart and from Goulburn Island to Cape Shield.