Tropical Cyclone Chido battered Mayotte during Friday night. A weather station at the Dzaoudzi-Pamandzi International Airport (FMCZ) in Mayotte reported a sustained wind speed of 84 knots (97 m.p.h. or 156 km/h) during the passage of Tropical Cyclone Chido. The weather station also reported a wind gust of 99 knots (114 m.p.h. or 184 km/h) during the passage of Chido. Tropical Cyclone Chido most likely caused major damage on Mayotte.
At 4:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 12.7°S and longitude 44.8°E which put the center about 20 miles (30 km) west of Mayotte. Chido was moving toward the west-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.
Tropical Cyclone Chido strengthened as it approached Mayotte on Friday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) was at the center of Chido’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Chido. Storms near the core of Chido generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass in the upper levels exceeded the stronger inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere. The greater upper level divergence caused the surface pressure to decrease.
The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chodi was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido.
The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Chido is 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 37.6. Tropical Cyclone Chido is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey made landfall in Texas in 2017.
The southern part of the eyewall of Tropical Cyclone Chido passed directly over Mayotte. Chido likely caused major damage in Mayotte. Tropical Cyclone Chido also dropped heavy rain on Mayotte and flash floods are likely.
Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment favorable for a powerful tropical cyclone during the next 18 hours. Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Chido could maintain its intensity during the next 18 hours if the inflow of mass in the lower levels is balanced by the divergence of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Chido could weaken if the inflow of mass in the lower levels exceeds the divergence of mass in the upper levels.
Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido will reach the coast of northern Mozambique in 18 hours.
Tropical Cyclone Chido is likely to make landfall on the coast of northern Mozambique near Pemba. Chido could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hits northern Mozambique. Tropical Cyclone Chido will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Mozambique. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Chido will be capable of causing regional major damage.