Tag Archives: Europa Island

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine Strengthens over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine strengthened over the Mozambique Channel on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was located at latitude 19.5°S and longitude 39.6°E which put it about 210 miles (340 km) north-northeast of Europa Island. Jasmine was moving toward the south at 7 m.p.h (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine strengthened on Sunday as it moved through a favorable environment over the Mozambique Channel. The distribution of thunderstorms around Jasmine’s circulation became more symmetrical, More thunderstorms developed around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Jasmine. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jasmine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel. The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jasmine’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear may not be large enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine could get stronger during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough over southern Africa will move toward Jasmine on Monday. The upper level trough could cause the wind shear to increase when it moves closer to Tropical Cyclone Jasmine.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Jasmine toward the south during the next day or so. Jasmine could move more toward the southeast when it moves around the western end of the ridge early next week. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Jasmine could approach southwestern Madagascar within 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane Emerges over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Chalane emerged over the Mozambique Channel on Monday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chalane was located at latitude 20.1°S and longitude 43.3°E which put it about 270 miles (440 km) east-northeast of Europa Island. Chalane was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

After crossing central Madagascar during the weekend, Tropical Cyclone Chalane emerged over the Mozambique Channel on Monday. The circulation around Chalane remained relatively intact despite crossing mountains on Madagascar. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands north and east of the center of circulation. Bands south and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 40 miles in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Chalane. The winds in the northern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Chalane will move over water in the Mozambique Channel where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The winds near the axis of the ridge are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Chalane will intensify and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane will move north of a subtropical high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high will steer Chalane toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Chalane will pass near Europa Island in 18 hours. Chalane could approach the central coast of Mozambique in 48 hours. Tropical Cyclone Chalane could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches Mozambique.