Tag Archives: Jasmine

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine Brings Gusty Winds and Rain to Southern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar on Tuesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was located at latitude 23.4°S and longitude 44.0°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) east of Toliara, Madagascar. Jasmine was moving toward the east at 10 m.p.h (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine made landfall on the southwest coast of Madagascar near Toliara on Tuesday. Jasmine was the equivalent of a tropical storm at the time of landfall. The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Jasmine.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move east across the southern end of Madagascar during the next 18 hours. Jasmine will weaken as it moves over southern Madagascar but it will continue to produce gusty winds. The gusty winds could cause minor damage and electrical outages. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will also drop locally heavy rain over parts of southern Madagascar. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations, especially in places with steep slopes.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine Moves Toward Southwest Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine moved toward southwest Madagascar on Monday night. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was located at latitude 22.8°S and longitude 41.9°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) west-northwest of Toliara, Madagascar. Jasmine was moving toward the southeast at 5 m.p.h (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine strengthened slightly on Monday night as it moved over the Mozambique Channel toward southwest Madagascar. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Jasmine’s circulation. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the center of circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in the southern past of the ring. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine. Storms near the core of Jasmine generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Jasmine.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Jasmine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. An upper level trough over southern Africa will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jasmine’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase on Tuesday. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine could intensify during the next few hours, but it may start to weaken later on Tuesday when the shear increases.

The upper level trough over southern Africa will steer tropical cyclone Jasmine toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Jasmine will approach the coast of southwest Madagascar during the next 12 hours. The center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine could make landfall near Toliara in 15 to 18 hours. Jasmine will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar during the next 36 hours. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine Strengthens over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine strengthened over the Mozambique Channel on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was located at latitude 19.5°S and longitude 39.6°E which put it about 210 miles (340 km) north-northeast of Europa Island. Jasmine was moving toward the south at 7 m.p.h (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine strengthened on Sunday as it moved through a favorable environment over the Mozambique Channel. The distribution of thunderstorms around Jasmine’s circulation became more symmetrical, More thunderstorms developed around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Jasmine. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jasmine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel. The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jasmine’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear may not be large enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine could get stronger during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough over southern Africa will move toward Jasmine on Monday. The upper level trough could cause the wind shear to increase when it moves closer to Tropical Cyclone Jasmine.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Jasmine toward the south during the next day or so. Jasmine could move more toward the southeast when it moves around the western end of the ridge early next week. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Jasmine could approach southwestern Madagascar within 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine Develops near Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine developed near Mozambique on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was located at latitude 17.7°S and longitude 40.4°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) south-southeast of Angoche, Mozambique. Jasmine was moving toward the south-southeast at 10 m.p.h (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A tropical depression over the western Mozambique Channel strengthened on Saturday night and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Jasmine. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Jasmine’s circulation that were over the water in the Mozambique Channel. Bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine were mostly over land and those bands consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Jasmine generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine. The winds in the northern half of Jasmine were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jasmine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel. The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Jasmine’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be large enough to prevent intensification. There will be less friction when the western half of Jasmine’s circulation moves over the Mozambique Channel. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine is likely to get stronger during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Jasmine toward the south. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move away from the coast of Mozambique during the next 24 hours. Gusty winds and locally heavy rain over northern Mozambique will diminish when Jasmine moves farther away.