Tropical Cyclone Jasmine moved toward southwest Madagascar on Monday night. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was located at latitude 22.8°S and longitude 41.9°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) west-northwest of Toliara, Madagascar. Jasmine was moving toward the southeast at 5 m.p.h (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine strengthened slightly on Monday night as it moved over the Mozambique Channel toward southwest Madagascar. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Jasmine’s circulation. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the center of circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in the southern past of the ring. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine. Storms near the core of Jasmine generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Jasmine.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Jasmine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. An upper level trough over southern Africa will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jasmine’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase on Tuesday. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine could intensify during the next few hours, but it may start to weaken later on Tuesday when the shear increases.

The upper level trough over southern Africa will steer tropical cyclone Jasmine toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Jasmine will approach the coast of southwest Madagascar during the next 12 hours. The center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine could make landfall near Toliara in 15 to 18 hours. Jasmine will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar during the next 36 hours. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.