Tropical Cyclone Jasmine Develops near Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine developed near Mozambique on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was located at latitude 17.7°S and longitude 40.4°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) south-southeast of Angoche, Mozambique. Jasmine was moving toward the south-southeast at 10 m.p.h (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A tropical depression over the western Mozambique Channel strengthened on Saturday night and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Jasmine. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Jasmine’s circulation that were over the water in the Mozambique Channel. Bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine were mostly over land and those bands consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Jasmine generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine. The winds in the northern half of Jasmine were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jasmine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel. The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Jasmine’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be large enough to prevent intensification. There will be less friction when the western half of Jasmine’s circulation moves over the Mozambique Channel. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine is likely to get stronger during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Jasmine toward the south. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move away from the coast of Mozambique during the next 24 hours. Gusty winds and locally heavy rain over northern Mozambique will diminish when Jasmine moves farther away.