Tropical Cyclone Jude intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it neared the coast of Mozambique on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 40.8°E which put the center about 40 miles (65 km) east-southeast of Nacala, Mozambique. Jude was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.
Tropical Cyclone Jude rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it neared the coast of Mozambique on Sunday. A small circular eye formed at the center of Jude’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude. Storms near the center of Jude generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.
The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude was symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Jude’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.
The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Jude is 13.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 27.9. Tropical Cyclone Jude is similar in intensity to Hurricane Hanna when Hanna hit south Texas in 2020. Jude is larger than Hanna was.
Tropical Cyclone Jude will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Jude will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Jude will intensify during the next few hours.
Tropical Cyclone Jude will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Mozambique Channel. The high pressure system will steer Jude toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude will reach the coast of Mozambique near Nacala in a few hours.
Tropical Cyclone Jude will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches Mozambique. Jude will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Mozambique. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods. Tropical Cyclone Jude will also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of Mozambique.
Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone continued to spin far to the southeast of Diego Garcia. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 82.9°E which put the center about 1005 miles (1625 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Ivone was moving toward the south-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.