Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi brought wind and rain to northern Madagascar on Saturday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was located at latitude 13.1°S and longitude 48.4°E which put the center about 60 miles (95 km) south of Antsiranana, Madagascar. Dikeledi was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.
Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon before it reached northern Madagascar on Saturday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Dikeledi’s circulation. An eye appeared intermittently on microwave satellite images. The intermittent eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core to Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.
The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Dikeledi’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.
The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi is 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 9.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 22.2 Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Isaias when Isaias hit North Carolina in 2020.
Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move across northern Madagascar during the next few hours. Dikeledi is capable of causing localized minor wind damage. Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will also drop heavy rain over parts of northern Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.
Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Dikeledi toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move across northern Madagascar during the next few hours. The center of Dikeledi’s circulation will pass near Mayotte on Sunday.
Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will weaken while it moves across northern Madagascar. Dikeledi will will move through an environment favorable for intensification when it reaches the northern Mozambique Channel on Sunday. Dikeledi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dikeledi’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi is likely to intensify on Sunday when it gets to the northern Mozambique Channel.