Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi passed southwest of Madagascar on Wednesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was located at latitude 26.4°S and longitude 42.9°E which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) southwest of Beloha, Madagascar. Dikeledi was moving toward the south-southeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.
Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi intensified on Wednesday as it moved southwest of Madagascar. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) formed at the center of Dikeledi’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi. Storms near the core of Dikeledi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.
The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi increased on Wednesday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Dikeledi’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the western side of Dikeledi.
The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.8 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size INdex (HWISI) was 28.3. Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.
Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi were bring gusty winds and heavy rain to southern Madagascar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.
Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Dikeledi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over southern Africa. The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dikeledi’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will weaken when the wind shear increases.
The upper level trough over southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi toward the southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dikeldi will pass south of Madagascar. Dikeledi will move southeast of Madagascar on Thursday.