Tropical Cyclone Bakung weakened as it moved over the South Indian Ocean west-northwest of the Cocos Islands on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung was located at latitude 10.9°S and longitude 92.9°E which put the center about 300 miles (485 km) west-northwest of the Cocos Islands.  Bakung was moving toward the east at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Stronger vertical wind shear caused Tropical Cyclone Bakung to weaken on Monday.  There were still thunderstorms around the center of Bakung’s circulation.  However, the vertical wind shear inhibited the upper level divergence.  Storms near the center of Bakung pumped less mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Monday.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bakung was very small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Bakung’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move through an environment that will continue to be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bakung will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is centered east of the Cocos Islands.  The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bakung’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause the moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Bakung to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The northwesterly winds blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Bakung will continue to steer Bakung toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move closer to the Cocos Islands.