Tropical Cyclone Bakung stalled over the South Indian Ocean west-northwest of the Cocos Islands on Sunday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung was located at latitude 10.9°S and longitude 91.0°E which put the center about 415 miles (670 km) west-northwest of the Cocos Islands. Bakung was moving toward the south at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.
Tropical Cyclone Bakung weakened a little after it stalled over the South Indian Ocean on Sunday. An eye was no longer visible at the center of Bakung’s circulation. Thunderstorms were still occurring near the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung. Storms near the center of Bakung generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass in the upper levels was a little less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere. So, the surface pressure was increasing slowly.
The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bakung continued to be very small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Bakung’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bakung.
Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bakung will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is centered east of the Cocos Islands. The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bakung’s circulation. Those winds will cause the moderate vertical wind shear. The moderate vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Bakung to weaken during the next 24 hours. Because the circulation around Bakung is so small, it could weaken rapidly at times.
The northwesterly winds blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Bakung will start to steer Bakung back toward the east during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bakung will move closer to the Cocos Islands.