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Tropical Cyclone Jenna Weakens

Tropical Cyclone Jenna weakened on Wednesday as it moved over the South Indian Ocean southwest of the Cocos Islands.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jenna was located at latitude 18.6°S and longitude 90.9°E which put the center about 580 miles (940 km) southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Jenna was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna weakened steadily on Wednesday as it moved southwest of the Cocos Islands.  The southwestern part of an upper level ridge produced strong northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Jenna’s circulation.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  The strong upper level winds also blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms that were part of Tropical Cyclone Jenna.

There were few thunderstorms left in Tropical Cyclone Jenna because of the strong vertical wind shear.  The bands revolving around the center of Jenna’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  There was little upper level divergence.  Mass was still converging in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the convergence of mass caused the surface pressure to increase.

The strong vertical wind shear also caused the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Jenna to become more asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the southern side of Jenna’s circulation.  Tropical storm force winds extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Jenna.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna will move through an environment very unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Jenna will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will continue to move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jenna’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Jenna will continue to weaken because of the strong vertical wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Jenna toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jenna will continue to move farther away from the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna Moves Away From the Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone Jenna moved farther away from the Cocos Islands on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jenna was located at latitude 16.9°S and longitude 93.9°E which put the center about 380 miles (615 km) southwest of the Cocos, Islands.  Jenna was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna strengthened as it moved away from the Cocos Islands on Tuesday.  A small eye was visible at the center of Jenna’s circulation earlier on Tuesday.  The eye was no longer visible in the most recent satellite images.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye earlier today and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Tropical Cyclone Jenna.  Storms near the core of Jenna generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jenna increased on Tuesday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Jenna’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Jenna.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the western side of Jenna’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Jenna will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jenna’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Tropical Cyclone Jenna will weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over the eastern part of the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Jenna toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jenna will continue to move farther away from the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Jenna rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jenna was located at latitude 14.8°S and longitude 95.8°E which put the center about 160 miles (260 km) south-southwest of the Cocos, Islands.  Jenna was moving toward the south-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology cancelled the Warning for the Cocos Islands when Tropical Cyclone Jenna moved away from the islands.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Jenna’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jenna.  Storms near the center of Jenna generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jenna was small.  The strongest winds were occurring in the northwestern quadrant of Jenna’s circulation.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Tropical Cyclone Jenna.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Jenna’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Jenna will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and the will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Jenna will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over the eastern part of the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Jenna toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jenna will continue to move farther away from the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna Develops Near Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone Jenna developed over the South Indian Ocean near the Cocos Islands on Sunday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jenna was located at latitude 12.7°S and longitude 96.9°E which put the center about 15 miles (25 km) east of the Cocos, Islands.  Jenna was moving toward the south-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the Cocos Islands.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean near the Cocos Islands strengthened on Sunday night and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Jenna.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jenna exhibited more organization early on Monday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Jenna’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jenna.  Storms near the center of Jenna generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Jenna was relatively symmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 145 miles (235 km) from the center of Jenna’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Jenna will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and the will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Jenna will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over the eastern part of the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Jenna toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jenna will move away from the Cocos Islands later today.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Cocos Islands during the next few hours.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Grant was passing north of La Reunion.  At 7:00 a.m.EST Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 16.2°S and longitude 56.0°E which put the center about 325 miles (525 km) north of La Reunion,   Grant was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Elvis Spins Near Southwest Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Elvis continued to spin near southwestern Madagascar on Wednesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Elvis was located at latitude 26.0°S and longitude 43.3°E which put the center about 115 miles (185 km) southwest of Beloha, Madagascar.  Elvis was moving toward the south-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Although Tropical Cyclone Elvis strengthened on Wednesday, drier air appeared to be getting pulled into Elvis’ circulation.  Many of the thunderstorms near the center of Tropical Cyclone Elvis dissipated. Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Elvis’ circulation.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Elvis consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The few remaining thunderstorms near the center of Elvis were not generating much upper level divergence

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Elvis was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) in the southeastern part of Elvis’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 50 miles in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Elvis.

Tropical Cyclone Elvis will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Elvis will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough near southern Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Elvis’ circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate to strong vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification of Tropical Cyclone Elvis.  Drier air will also inhibit the intensification of Elvis.  The vertical wind shear and the drier air are likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Elvis to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough near southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Elvis toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical of Cyclone Elvis will pass south of southern Madagascar.  Elvis will move away from Madagascar on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako Hits Northern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Dumako hit northern Madagascar on Tuesday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dumako was located at latitude 16.8°S and longitude 49.9°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northeast of Ivongo, Madagascar. Dumako was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako hit the coast of northern Madagascar between Mananara and Ivongo on Tuesday morning. Dumako was the equivalent of a tropical storm when it hit Madagascar. The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dumako.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northern Madagascar during the next 24 hours. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations, especially in mountainous regions. Dumako will move west across northern Madagascar during the next 36 hours. Tropical Cyclone Dumako will weaken steadily as it moves over the mountains in Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako Moves Toward Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Dumako moved toward Madagascar on Monday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dumako was located at latitude 16.7°S and longitude 52.5°E which put it about 185 miles (295 km) east of Mananara, Madagascar. Dumako was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako moved toward northern Madagascar on Monday afternoon. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Dumako’s circulation during the afternoon after most of the previous thunderstorms had weakened on Monday morning. Tropical Cyclone Dumako weakened a little before the new thunderstorms developed. The new thunderstorms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Dumako was a small tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Dumako will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Dumako. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. There is drier air to the north and west of Tropical Cyclone Dumako. The drier air could inhibit the formation of more thunderstorms around Dumako’s circulation. However, there appears to be moister air near the center of center of circulation and Tropical Cyclone Dumako could strengthen a little during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako will move north of a subtropical high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Dumako will reach the coast of northern Madagascar near Mananara in 18 hours. Dumako is likely to be the equivalent of a tropical storm when it reaches northern Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Dumako will bring gusty wins and locally heavy rain to northern Madagascar on Tuesday. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Dumako is likely to weaken rapidly after the center moves over Madagascar because the circulation is so small.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako Passes North of La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Dumako passed north of La Reunion on Monday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dunako was located at latitude 16.6°S and longitude 54.6°E which put it about 275 miles (445 km) north of St. Denis, La Reunion. Dumako was moving toward the west-southwest at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Small Tropical Cyclone Dumako passed north of Mauritius and La Reunion on Monday morning as it moved over the Southwest Indian Ocean. After Dumako intensified on Sunday, it appeared to be weakening on Monday morning. Drier air seemed to be causing thunderstorms to weaken. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a band in the eastern side of Dumako’s circulation. Bands in other parts of Tropical Cyclone Dumako consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The thunderstorms in the eastern side of Dumako were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the enter of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Dumako will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Dumako. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. There is drier air to the north and west of Tropical Cyclone Dumako. The drier air could continue to inhibit the formation of thunderstorms around Dumako’s circulation. If drier air inhibits the formation of additional thunderstorms, then Tropical Cyclone Dumako is likely to weaken gradually during the next during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako will move north of a subtropical high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Dumako 12S will reach the coast of northern Madagascar near Mananara in a little over 24 hours. Dumako is likely to be the equivalent of a tropical storm when it reaches northern Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Dumako will bring gusty wins and locally heavy rain to northern Madagascar on Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Forms North-Northeast of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone 12S formed north-northeast of Mauritius on Sunday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone 12S was located at latitude 15.1°S and longitude 60.5°E which put it about 430 miles (695 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone 12S formed over the Southwest Indian Ocean early on Sunday morning. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone 12S was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring southeast of the center of circulation. Bands in other parts of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone 12S was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 30 miles (50 km) in the southeastern quadrant of the tropical cyclone. The winds in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone 12S were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone 12S will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone 12S will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak bear the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. There is drier air to the north of Tropical Cyclone 12S. Drier air could inhibit the formation of thunderstorms in the northern part of the tropical cyclone’s circulation. If drier air inhibits the formation of thunderstorms, then it could prevent intensification of Tropical Cyclone 12S. Since the circulation around Tropical Cyclone 12S is small, changes in the environment could have big effects on the circulation. Tropical Cyclone 12S could get a little stronger during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 12S will move north of a subtropical high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 12S will pass north of Mauritius in 24 hours. The small size of the circulation means that the tropical cyclone should have little effect on Mauritius. Tropical Cyclone 12S could be north of La Reunion in 36 hours. The tropical cyclone could reach northern Madagascar in less than three days.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise Makes Landfall in Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Eloise made landfall on the coast of Mozambique on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eloise was located at latitude 20.4°S and longitude 34.6°E which put it about 45 miles (75 km) south-southwest of Beira, Mozambique. Eloise was moving toward the west-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Eloise made landfall on the coast of Mozambique just to the south of Beira on Friday night. Eloise continued to intensify until the center made landfall. A small circular eye was evident on satellite images when Tropical Cyclone Eloise approached the coast. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of E;poise. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center.

It is likely that the northern eyewall of Tropical Cyclone Eloise produced winds of near hurricane/typhoon force in Beira. Southerly winds blowing water toward the coast may have caused a storm surge of up to 6 to 9 feet (2 to 3 meters). Eloise was continuing to produce gusty winds and heavy rain in the region around Beira. The tropical cyclone will weaken gradually as it moves inland over central Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean and southern Africa. The high will steer Eloise toward the west-southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Eloise will drop heavy rain over parts of central Mozambique, southern Zimbabwe, northern South Africa and eastern Botswana. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.