Tropical Cyclone Dumako moved toward Madagascar on Monday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dumako was located at latitude 16.7°S and longitude 52.5°E which put it about 185 miles (295 km) east of Mananara, Madagascar. Dumako was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako moved toward northern Madagascar on Monday afternoon. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Dumako’s circulation during the afternoon after most of the previous thunderstorms had weakened on Monday morning. Tropical Cyclone Dumako weakened a little before the new thunderstorms developed. The new thunderstorms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Dumako was a small tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Dumako will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Dumako. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. There is drier air to the north and west of Tropical Cyclone Dumako. The drier air could inhibit the formation of more thunderstorms around Dumako’s circulation. However, there appears to be moister air near the center of center of circulation and Tropical Cyclone Dumako could strengthen a little during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako will move north of a subtropical high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Dumako will reach the coast of northern Madagascar near Mananara in 18 hours. Dumako is likely to be the equivalent of a tropical storm when it reaches northern Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Dumako will bring gusty wins and locally heavy rain to northern Madagascar on Tuesday. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Dumako is likely to weaken rapidly after the center moves over Madagascar because the circulation is so small.