Tropical Cyclone Elvis continued to spin near southwestern Madagascar on Wednesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Elvis was located at latitude 26.0°S and longitude 43.3°E which put the center about 115 miles (185 km) southwest of Beloha, Madagascar. Elvis was moving toward the south-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.
Although Tropical Cyclone Elvis strengthened on Wednesday, drier air appeared to be getting pulled into Elvis’ circulation. Many of the thunderstorms near the center of Tropical Cyclone Elvis dissipated. Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Elvis’ circulation. Bands in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Elvis consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The few remaining thunderstorms near the center of Elvis were not generating much upper level divergence
The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Elvis was asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) in the southeastern part of Elvis’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 50 miles in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Elvis.
Tropical Cyclone Elvis will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Elvis will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough near southern Africa. The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Elvis’ circulation. Those winds will cause moderate to strong vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification of Tropical Cyclone Elvis. Drier air will also inhibit the intensification of Elvis. The vertical wind shear and the drier air are likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Elvis to weaken during the next 24 hours.
The upper level trough near southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Elvis toward the southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical of Cyclone Elvis will pass south of southern Madagascar. Elvis will move away from Madagascar on Friday.