Tropical Cyclone Elvis formed near southwestern Madagascar on Tuesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Elvis was located at latitude 25.1°S and longitude 42.8°E which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) southwest of Toliara, Madagascar. Elvis was moving toward the southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.
A low pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean near southwestern Madagascar strengthened on Tuesday evening and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Elvis. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Elvis was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and southern parts of Elvis’ circulation. Bands in the northern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Elvis consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Elvis generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.
Tropical Cyclone Elvis will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Elvis will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over southern Africa. The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Elvis’ circulation. Those winds will cause moderate to strong vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification of Tropical Cyclone Elvis. Elvis could intensify a little if the vertical wind shear does not increase. However, if the wind shear does increase then Elvis is likely to weaken.
Tropical Cyclone Elvis will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Elvis slowly toward the southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical of Cyclone Elvis will pass just to the south of southern Madagascar.
Bands in the northern part of Tropical Cyclone Elvis could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.