Tropical Cyclone 03S formed over the South Indian Ocean west of the Cocos Islands on Wednesday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 03S was located at latitude 13.1°S and longitude 91.2°E which put the center about 385 miles (620 km) west of the Cocos Islands. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the south-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.
A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean west of the Cocos Islands strengthened on Wednesday and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the system as Tropical Cyclone 03S. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone 03S was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of the tropical cyclone’s circulation. Bands in the eastern side of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms west of the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.
The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone 03S was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the southern side of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone 03S.
Tropical Cyclone 03S will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical cyclone will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge that is west of Australia. The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone 03S could strengthen during the next 24 hours if the upper level winds do not get any stronger.
Tropical Cyclone 03S will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is west of Australia. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone 03S will move farther away from the Cocos Islands.