Tropical Cyclone Bheki weakened over the South Indian Ocean on Monday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki was located at latitude 17.7°S and longitude 68.1°E which put the center about 345 miles (555 km) east-northeast of Rodrigues. Bheki was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.
More vertical wind shear caused Tropical Cyclone Bheki to weaken on Monday as it moved over the South Indian Ocean. It was no longer possible to detect an eye on satellite images of Bheki. Thunderstorms were still occurring around the center of Bheki’s circulation. Those thunderstorms generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.
There was still a large area of strong winds in Tropical Cyclone Bheki. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Bheki’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.
The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Bheki was 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size INdex (HWISI) was 31.9. Tropical Cyclone Bheki was similar in intensity to Hurricane Matthew when Matthew hit North Carolina in 2016. Bheki was bigger than Matthew was.
Tropical Cyclone Bheki will continue to move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bheki will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bheki’s circulation. Those upper level winds will cause the moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Bheki will weaken during the next 24 hours because of the moderate vertical wind shear.
Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Bheki toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center Tropical Cyclone Bheki will approach Rodrigues in 24 hours.
Tropical Cyclone Bheki will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Rodrigues. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.