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Tropical Cyclone Arnab Brings Wind and Rain to Eastern India

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Tropical Cyclone Arnab brought wind and rain to eastern India on Tuesday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Arnab was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 83.4°E which put the center about 135 miles (215 km) east of Machilipatnam, India.  Arnab was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Arnab made landfall on the coast of Andhra Pradesh just to the east of Machilipatnam on Tuesday.  Arnab rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane before it made landfall in eastern India.

Tropical Cyclone Arnab was the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale at the time of landfall.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Arnab’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Arnab.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Arnab was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.1.  Tropical Cyclone Arnab was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Tropical Cyclone Arnab will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over over the Bay of Bengal.  The high pressure system will steer Arnab toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Arnab will move inland over northern Andhra Pradesh.

Tropical Cyclone Arnab will be capable of causing sever damage as it moves inland over northern Andhra Pradesh.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash flooding in some locations. Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Tropical Cyclone Arnab could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along parts of the coast of Andhra Pradesh.

Tropical Cyclone Arnab Develops over Bay of Bengal

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Tropical Cyclone Arnab developed rapidly over the Bay of Bengal on Sunday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Arnab was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 87.8°E which put the center about 500 miles (805 km) east-southeast of Machilipatnam, India.  Arnab was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Arnab rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Sunday night after it developed over the Bay of Bengal.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Arnab’s circulation.  A small circular eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Arnab.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Arnab.  Storms near the center of Arnab generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Arnab was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Arnab’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Arnab.

Tropical Cyclone Arnab will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Arnab will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is over Southeast Asia and the Bay of Bengal.  The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Arnab’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Arnab will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Arnab could rapidly intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Arnab will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over Southeast Asia and the Bay of Bengal.  The high pressure system will steer Arnab toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Arnab will move toward southeastern India.

Tropical Cyclone Arnab could approach the coast of Andhra Pradesh in 36 hours.  Arnab is likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches the coast.  Tropical Cyclone Arnab will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Andhra Pradesh.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Arnab could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the coast of Andhra Pradesh.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah Weakens

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah was weakening on Sunday as it moved slowly over the southwestern Bay of Bengal east of southern India.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ditwah was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 80.6°E which put the center about 55 miles (90 km) east-southeast of Puducherry, India.  Ditwah was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah was weakening slowly on Sunday.  A few new thunderstorms developed near the center of Ditwah’s circulation.  However, most of the bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Ditwah consisted of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were occurring in a couple of bands in the northeastern periphery of Ditwah’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will move through an environment mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ditwah will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is over Southeast Asia and the Bay of Bengal.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ditwah’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  In addition, drier air being pulled into Ditwah’s circulation is likely to limit the formation of new thunderstorms.  Tropical Cyclone Ditwah is likely to continue to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours because of the moderate vertical wind shear and the effects of the drier air.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Bay of Bengal.  The high pressure system will steer Ditwah slowly toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will move nearly parallel to the coast of southeast India.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will bring gusty winds and isolated heavy rain to parts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah Moves North of Sri Lanka

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah moved north of Sri Lanka on Saturday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ditwah was located at latitude 10.2°N and longitude 80.8°E which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) southeast of Puducherry, India.  Ditwah was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Ditwah was pulling in drier air from over India.  The drier air caused the thunderstorms near the center of Ditwah’s circulation to weaken.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the northern and eastern periphery of Tropical Cyclone Ditwah.  Bands in the other parts of Ditwah’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Even though the thunderstorms near the center of Tropical Cyclone Ditwah weakened, Ditwah was still producing winds to tropical storm force.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Ditwah’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ditwah will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is over Southeast Asia and the Bay of Bengal.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ditwah’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification but the shear may not be enough to prevent some intensification.  However, the drier air being pulled into Ditwah’s circulation is likely to inhibit the formation of new thunderstorms.  Tropical Cyclone Ditwah could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.  However, the drier air is likely to cause Ditwah to weaken slowly during the next several days.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Bay of Bengal.  The high pressure system will steer Ditwah toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will move nearly parallel to the coast of southeast India.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will bring gusty winds and isolated heavy rain to parts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah Spins Near Sri Lanka

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah continued to spin near Sri Lanka on Friday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ditwah was located at latitude 8.8°N and longitude 80.8°E which put the center about 85 miles (135 km) south-southeast of Jaffna, Sri Lanka.  Ditwah was moving toward the north-northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Ditwah was still over northern Sri Lanka on Friday morning.  The fact that the center of Ditwah’s circulation was still over land combined with the effects of vertical wind shear to cause the distribution of thunderstorms to be asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Ditwah.  Bands in the southern and eastern parts of Ditwah’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The strongest winds in Tropical Cyclone Ditwah were occurring over the southwestern Bay of Bengal.   Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of Ditwah’s circulation.  The winds were much weaker over land.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification when the center of its circulation moves back over the southwestern Bay of Bengal in a few hours.  Ditwah will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is over Southeast Asia and the Bay of Bengal.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ditwah’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification but the shear may not be enough to prevent some intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Ditwah could intensify a little during the next 24 hours even with moderate vertical wind shear, when the center of its circulation moves back over water.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Bay of Bengal.  The high pressure system will steer Ditwah toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will move north of Sri Lanka in a few hours.  Ditwah could reach the coast of Tamil Nadu during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will continue to affect Sri Lanka and southern India.  Ditwah will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  There were reports that flooding in Sri Lanka had already caused fatalities.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah Forms Near Sri Lanka

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah formed over the southwestern Bay of Bengal on Thursday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ditwah was located at latitude 7.8°N and longitude 81.6°E which put the center about 10 miles (15 km) northwest of Batticaloa, Sri Lanka.  Ditwah was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A low pressure system over the southwestern Bay of Bengal near Sri Lanka intensified on Thursday and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Ditwah.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Ditwah was near the east coast of Sri Lanka.  About half of Ditwah’s circulation was over Sri Lanka.  A band of thunderstorms was wrapped around the northern and western sides of the center of Tropical Cyclone Ditwah.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Ditwah’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Ditwah generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Ditwah was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the southern half of Ditwah’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Ditwah.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ditwah will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is over Southeast Asia and the Bay of Bengal.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ditwah’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  The fact that almost half of Ditwah’s circulation is over Sri Lanka will also inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Ditwah could intensify during the next 24 hours even with moderate vertical wind shear, if the center of its circulation remains over water.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Bay of Bengal.  The high pressure system will steer Ditwah toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will move along the coast of northeastern Sri Lanka.  Ditwah could approach the coast of India near Chennai within 72 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will produce strong winds and heavy rain over Sri Lanka.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Montha Forms over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Montha formed over the Bay of Bengal on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Montha was located at latitude 11.6°N and longitude 85.2°E which put the center about 380 miles (615 km) east-southeast of Chennai, India.  Montha was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A low pressure system over the Bay of Bengal strengthened on Sunday and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Montha.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Montha was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Montha’s circulation.  The bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Montha consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Montha generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the southwestern part of Tropical Cyclone Montha.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) in the southwestern quadrant of Montha’s circulation.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Montha were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Montha will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Montha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over Southeast Asia.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Montha’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Montha could intensify a little during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Montha will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Southeast Asia.  The high pressure system will steer Montha toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Montha will move toward the east coast of India.

 

Tropical Cyclone Fengal Drops Heavy Rain on Southern India

Tropical Cyclone Fengal dropped heavy rain on parts of southern India on Sunday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fengal was located at latitude 12.1°N and longitude 79.8°E which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) south-southwest of Chennai, India.  Fengal was moving toward the west-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fengal was dropping heavy rain on Sunday as it moved slowly inland over southern India.  Heavy rain was falling in the east central and northeastern parts of Tamil Nadu.

Tropical Cyclone Fengal was weakening gradually as it moved slowly inland over southern India.  The strongest winds were occurring in the part of Fengal’s circulation that were still over the Bay of Bengal.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fengal.  The winds in the parts of Fengal’s circulation that were over land were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Fengal will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over eastern and southern Asia.  The high pressure system will steer Fengal toward the west during the next 48 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fengal will continue to move slowly across southern.  Fengal could move over the Arabian Sea in 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fengal will weaken gradually as it moves farther inland over southern India.  Fengal will continue to drop heavy rain on parts of Tamil Nadu during the next 24 hours.   Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Fengal Brings Wind and Rain to Southeastern India

Tropical Cyclone Fengal brought wind and rain to southeastern India on Saturday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fengal was located at latitude 12.4°N and longitude 80.5°E which put the center about 45 miles (75 km) south of Chennai, India.  Fengal was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Fengal made landfall on the coast of southeastern India between Chennai and Puducherry on Saturday.  Fengal was the equivalent of a tropical storm at the time of landfall.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fengal.

Tropical Cyclone Fengal will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over eastern and southern Asia.  The high pressure system will steer Fengal toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fengal will move across southern India during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fengal will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Tamil Nadu.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Fengal could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter) along the coast of Tamil Nadu.

Tropical Cyclone Fengal Forms Over Southwestern Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Fengal formed over the southwestern Bay of Bengal on Friday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fengal was located at latitude 11.2°N and longitude 82.2°E which put the center about 165 miles (270 km) east-southeast of the Puducherry, India. Fengal was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

A low pressure system over the southwestern Bay of Bengal strengthened during Thursday night and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Fengal.  Thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Fengal.  More thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of Fengal’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Fengal generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Cyclone Fengal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fengal will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that extends from India across the southern Bay of Bengal.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Fengal is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fengal will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over eastern and southern Asia.  The high pressure system will steer Fengal toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fengal will approach the coast of southeastern India near Puducherry in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fengal will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Tamil Nadu.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Fengal could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter) along the coast of Tamil Nadu.