Tag Archives: IO03

Tropical Cyclone Dana Makes Landfall in India

Tropical Cyclone Dana made landfall on the coast of India southwest of Kolkata on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dana was located at latitude 20.9°N and longitude 86.7°E which put the center about 160 miles (260 km) southwest of Kolkata, India.  Dana was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dana was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it made landfall on the coast of India southwest of Kolkata.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of Dana’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Dana brought strong winds and heavy rain to the southwestern part of West Bengal and the eastern part of Odisha.  The heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some location.  Tropical Cyclone Dana was also capable of causing a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coast of Odisha and West Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Dana will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over South Asia.  The high pressure system will steer Dana toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dana will move inland over northeastern India.

Tropical Cyclone Dana will weaken steadily as it moves farther inland.  Even though it will be weakening, Dana will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to Odisha and West Bengal on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Dana Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Dana strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the northern Bay of Bengal on Wednesday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dana was located at latitude 19.3°N and longitude 87.5°E which put the center about 245 miles (395 km) south of Kolkata, India.  Dana was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dana strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the northern Bay of Bengal on Wednesday night.  More thunderstorms formed close to the center of Dana’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Dana.  Storms near the center of Dana’s circulation generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Dana was more symmetrical on Thursday morning.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Dana’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dana.

Tropical Cyclone Dana will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Dana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.   Tropical Cyclone Dana will intensify during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dana will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Southeast Asia.  The high pressure system will steer Dana toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dana will reach the coast of India southwest of Kolkata in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dana will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Odisha and West Bengal.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Dana will also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of Odisha and West Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Dana Forms Over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Dana formed over the Bay of Bengal on Wednesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Dana was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 88.8°E which put the center about 370 miles (595 km) south of Kolkata, India.  Dana was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the Bay of Bengal strengthened on Wednesday morning and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Dana.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dana exhibited more organization on Wednesday morning.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern side of the center of Dana’s circulation.  Bands of thunderstorms were occurring in the western side of Tropical Cyclone Dana.  Bands in the eastern sides of Dana’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Dana generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Dana will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that extends from Southeast Asia to over the northern Bay of Bengal.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dana’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Dana will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dana will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Southeast Asia.  The high pressure system will steer Dana toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dana will move toward the coast of India.  Dana is likely to approach the coast southwest of Kolkata in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dana will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Odisha and West Bengal.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Dana will also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of Odisha and West Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab Makes Landfall in Oman

Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab made landfall on the north coast of Oman on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab was located at latitude 23.6°N and longitude 57.1°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) southwest of Al Suwaiq, Oman. Shaheen/Gulab was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab made landfall on the north coast of Oman near Al Suwaiq on Sunday. Shaheen-Gulab was the equivalent of a strong tropical storm at the time of landfall. It was producing gusty winds and dropping heavy rain on parts of the northern coast of Oman. There were already reports of flash flooding causing casualties and damage in northern Oman. Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation. The was a ring of thunderstorms around the center and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab will move south of a high pressure system over Southwest Asia. The high will steer Shaheen/Gulab toward the west-southwest during the next 36 hours. Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab will weaken steadily as it moves over mountains in northern Oman. Shaheen/Gulab will continue to drop locally heavy rain over the normally dry region during the next day or so and more flash floods are likely to occur.

It is very rare for a tropical cyclone to thread the needle and move so far to the west over the Gulf of Oman. The small size of Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab allowed much of its circulation to remain over the warm water in the Gulf of Oman. Drier air over Iran and the Arabian Peninsula was confined to the periphery of the circulation. The inner core of Shaheen/Gulab remained intact. Tropical Cyclone Shaheen was even more unusual because it started as Tropical Cyclone Gulab over the Bay of Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab Moves West over Gulf of Oman

Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab moved west over the Gulf of Oman on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab was located at latitude 24.3°N and longitude 59.0°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) north-northeast of Muscat, Oman. Shaheen/Gulab was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab was over the Gulf of Oman on Saturday night. Winds blowing around the southwestern part of Shaheen/Gulab appeared to be pulling drier air over Oman into the southern and eastern part of the tropical cyclone. A small eye was present at the center of circulation. The was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms, but there was a break in the southeastern part of the ring of storms. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a band on the western side of Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab. Bands in the southern and eastern parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The circulation around Shaheen/Gulab was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Shaheen/Gulab will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Southwest Asia. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, dry air from Oman could continue to limit the development of thunderstorms in the southern and eastern parts of Shaheen/Gulab. Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab could strengthen during the next 12 hours. If more drier air reaches the core of Shaheen/Gulab, the remainder of the eyewall could weaken. That would reduce the maximum sustained wind speed.

Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over Southwest Asia. The high will steer Shaheen/Gulab toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gulab could approach the coast of Oman near Sohar in 18 hours. Shaheen/Gulab will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the part of Oman around Sohar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods. Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab will weaken quickly when it moves inland.

Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Arabian Sea on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab was located at latitude 24.0°N and longitude 62.1°E which put it about 240 miles (390 km) east of Muscat, Oman. Shaheen/Gulab was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

The India Meteorological Department renamed Tropical Cyclone Gulab as Tropical Cyclone Shaheen when it re-intensified over the Arabian Sea. Shaheen/Gulab intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon east of Oman on Friday night. An eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Outside the core of Shaheen/Gulab the strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of the tropical cyclone. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Shaheen/Gulab will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Southwest Asia and the northern Arabian Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab could intensify during the next 12 hours. Dry air from Southwest Asia could limit the development of thunderstorms in the northern half of Shaheen/Gulab. If the drier air reaches the core of Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab, it could weaken during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over Southwest Asia. The high will steer Shaheen/Gulab toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gulab could approach the coast of Oman west of Muscat in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Gulab Redevelops over the Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Gulab redeveloped over the Arabian Sea on Thursday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gulab was located at latitude 22.8°N and longitude 65.1°E which put it about 175 miles (280 km) south-southwest of Karachi, Pakistan. Gulab was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gulab redeveloped over the Arabian Sea south of Pakistan on Thursday. Gulab originally formed over the northern Bay of Bengal a few days ago. Gulab made landfall on the coast of India near Tekkali and then it moved westward across India. Even though Tropical Cyclone Gulab weakened after it made landfall, the circulation remained relatively intact because of a favorable upper level environment. There was not a lot of vertical wind shear. In fact, upper level divergence continued to pump away mass and allow the surface low pressure system to persist. The circulation began to intensify as Gulab approached the Arabian Sea and it strengthened once the low level center was back over water.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gulab exhibited more organization on Thursday. More thunderstorms developed in bands revolving around the center of Gulab. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Gulab. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The northern half of Gulab appeared to be pulling drier air from Asia into its circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) on the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Gulab. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) on the southern side of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gulab will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Gulab will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Southwest Asia and the northern Arabian Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Dry air from Asia could continue to limit the development of thunderstorms in the northern half of Gulab. Tropical Cyclone Gulab will intensify during the next 36 hours and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Gulab will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over Southwest Asia. The high will steer Gulab toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gulab could approach the coast of Oman near Muscat in 60 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Gulab forms over Northern Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Gulab formed over the northern Bay of Bengal on Saturday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gulab was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 88.0°W which put it about 245 miles (395 km) east of Tekkali, India. Gulab was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the northern Bay of Bengal strengthened on Saturday and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Gulab. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Gulab was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Gulab’s circulation. Bands in the eastern half of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. An upper level ridge over southern Asia was producing northeasterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Gulab. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (96 km) from the center of Gulab.

Tropical Cyclone Gulab will move through an environment that is marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Gulab will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. However, the upper level ridge over southern Asia will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Gulab could strengthen a little during the next 24 hours if the wind shear does not increase. If the upper level winds get stronger, then the wind shear will cause Gulab to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Gulab will move south of a high pressure system over southern Asia. The high will steer Gulab toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gulab could approach the coast of Andhra Pradesh near Tekkali in 24 hours. Gulab will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northeastern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone 04B Forms over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone 04B formed over the Bay of Bengal east of Sri Lanka. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gati (03A) was located at latitude 9.9°N and longitude 83.0°E which put it about 210 miles (340 km) east-southeast of Puducherry India and about 200 miles (320 km) east of Jaffna, Sri Lanka. It was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system east of Sri Lanka strengthened on Monday. More thunderstorms developed near the center of the low and the wind speeds increased. The distribution of thunderstorms around the low was asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation. Bands in the eastern half of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone 04B will move through an environment that is mostly favorable for intensification during the next during the next 36 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. The tropical cyclone will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they are probably the reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. The wind shear will slow the rate of intensification, but the shear will not be large enough to keep the tropical cyclone from strengthening. Tropical Cyclone 04B could intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon with 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 04B will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the Bay of Bengal. The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone 04B will pass north of Sri Lanka in about 24 hours. The tropical cyclone will approach the coast of India near Puducherry in 36 hours. It could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches the southeast coast of India.

Tropical Cyclone 04B will drop locally heavy rain over northern Sri Lanka. It will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern India later this week. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Gati weakened as it moved across northeastern Somalia toward the Gulf of Aden. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gati (03A) was located at latitude 11.9°N and longitude 47.5°E which put it about 45 miles (75 km) northwest of Maydh, Somalia. Gati was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gati Intensifies Explosively near Somalia

Tropical Cyclone Gati intensified explosively near the northeast coast of Somalia during Saturday night. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gati (03A) was located at latitude 10.3°N and longitude 52.0°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) east of Hafun, Somalia. It was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gati strengthened extremely rapidly on Saturday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) developed at the center of Gati. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms around the core of Gati generated very strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of large amounts of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease very rapidly, which contributed to the explosive intensification.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gati was very small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Gati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Gati was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 5.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.1. The structure of Gati was similar to that of midget typhoons sometimes observed over the Western North Pacific Ocean.

Tropical Cyclone Gati could strengthen further during the next few hours before it makes landfall on the northeast coast of Somalia. Gati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C. It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Gati will weaken quickly after it makes landfall in Somalia.

Tropical Cyclone Gati will move south of a high pressure system over th Arabian Peninsula. The high will steer Gati toward the west during the next 36 to 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gati wil make landfall near Hafun, Somalia in about six hours. Gati will be capable of causing major damage around Hafun. It will drop heavy rain over parts of northeastern Somalia and flash floods could occur.