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Tropical Cyclone Ditwah Spins Near Sri Lanka

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Tropical Cyclone Ditwah continued to spin near Sri Lanka on Friday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ditwah was located at latitude 8.8°N and longitude 80.8°E which put the center about 85 miles (135 km) south-southeast of Jaffna, Sri Lanka.  Ditwah was moving toward the north-northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Ditwah was still over northern Sri Lanka on Friday morning.  The fact that the center of Ditwah’s circulation was still over land combined with the effects of vertical wind shear to cause the distribution of thunderstorms to be asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Ditwah.  Bands in the southern and eastern parts of Ditwah’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The strongest winds in Tropical Cyclone Ditwah were occurring over the southwestern Bay of Bengal.   Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of Ditwah’s circulation.  The winds were much weaker over land.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification when the center of its circulation moves back over the southwestern Bay of Bengal in a few hours.  Ditwah will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is over Southeast Asia and the Bay of Bengal.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ditwah’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification but the shear may not be enough to prevent some intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Ditwah could intensify a little during the next 24 hours even with moderate vertical wind shear, when the center of its circulation moves back over water.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Bay of Bengal.  The high pressure system will steer Ditwah toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will move north of Sri Lanka in a few hours.  Ditwah could reach the coast of Tamil Nadu during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah will continue to affect Sri Lanka and southern India.  Ditwah will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  There were reports that flooding in Sri Lanka had already caused fatalities.

Tropical Cyclone Burevi Rains on Sri Lanka and Southern India

Tropical Cyclone Burevi dropped rain on northern Sri Lanka and southern India on Wednesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Burevi was located at latitude 9.1°N and longitude 80.4°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) south-southeast of Jaffna, Sri Lanka. Burevi was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Burevi made landfall on the coast of Sri Lanka north of Trincomalee on Wednesday. The center moved westward across northern Sri Lanka after it made landfall. Bands of showers and thunderstorms in the northern and western parts of Burevi dropped rain over northern Sri Lanka, southern Tamil Nadu and southern Kerala. Prolonged rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Burevi could weaken during the next few hours while the center is over northern Sri Lanka. The center of Burevi will move over the Gulf of Mannar in a few hours. The center of Tropical Cyclone Burevi could make another landfall on the coast of southern India near Thoothukudi in about 18 hours. Burevi will move across the southernmost parts of Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Tropical Cyclone Burevi could move over the Arabian Sea in about 36 hours. Burevi could slowly strengthen when it moves over the Arabian Sea.

Tropical Cyclone 04B Forms over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone 04B formed over the Bay of Bengal east of Sri Lanka. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gati (03A) was located at latitude 9.9°N and longitude 83.0°E which put it about 210 miles (340 km) east-southeast of Puducherry India and about 200 miles (320 km) east of Jaffna, Sri Lanka. It was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system east of Sri Lanka strengthened on Monday. More thunderstorms developed near the center of the low and the wind speeds increased. The distribution of thunderstorms around the low was asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation. Bands in the eastern half of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone 04B will move through an environment that is mostly favorable for intensification during the next during the next 36 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. The tropical cyclone will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they are probably the reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. The wind shear will slow the rate of intensification, but the shear will not be large enough to keep the tropical cyclone from strengthening. Tropical Cyclone 04B could intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon with 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 04B will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the Bay of Bengal. The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone 04B will pass north of Sri Lanka in about 24 hours. The tropical cyclone will approach the coast of India near Puducherry in 36 hours. It could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches the southeast coast of India.

Tropical Cyclone 04B will drop locally heavy rain over northern Sri Lanka. It will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern India later this week. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Gati weakened as it moved across northeastern Somalia toward the Gulf of Aden. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gati (03A) was located at latitude 11.9°N and longitude 47.5°E which put it about 45 miles (75 km) northwest of Maydh, Somalia. Gati was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.