The center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai passed north of La Reunion on Wednesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 19.1°S and longitude 55.4°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) north of St. Denis, La Reunion. Batsirai was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 942 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai appeared to be in the midst of another eyewall replacement cycle on Wednesday night. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the inner eye and eyewall. A second, larger eyewall surrounded the inner eyewall and the inner eyewall started to weaken. The outer eyewall contained a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai continued to have a large circulation. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 190 miles (305 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 46.6.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai is likely to weaken during the next few hours while it completes the eyewall replacement cycle. Batsirai could strengthen again after it completes the eyewall replacement cycle.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next several days. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to La Reunion during the next 12 hours. Rainbands in the southeastern part of Batsirai’s circulation were also dropping heavy rain over Mauritius. The heaviest rain was falling on the eastern slopes of mountains where the winds were blowing up the slopes. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Weather conditions on La Reunion and Mauritius will improve gradually when Batsirai moves farther away. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could approach the east coast of Madagascar south of Toamasina in 48 hours. Batsirai is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Madagascar.