Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Brings Wind and Rain to Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai brought wind and rain to Mauritius on Wednesday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 19.0°S and longitude 56.3°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) north-northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius. Batsirai was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 931 mb.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai passed north of Mauritius on Wednesday, but it still brought wind and rain. A weather station at Champ de Mars, near Port Louis, reported a wind speed of 94 m.p.h. (151 km/h). Another weather station near Port Louis at Bell Village reported 6.01 inches (152.7 mm) of rain.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai appeared to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle. The tiny inner eyewall dissipated and a new larger eye was apparent on satellite images. Batsirai may have been near Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale before the inner eyewall dissipated. The new eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Batsirai increased during the eyewall replacement cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 215 miles (345 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 29.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 23.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 53.0.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai weakened after the eyewall replacement cycle, but it could strengthen again since the inner core is still intact. There is a chance that Batsirai could reach Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next several days. Weather conditions on Mauritius will improve gradually as Batsirai moves farther away. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will pass north of La Reunion during the next 24 hours. Although the strongest winds in Batsirai will pass north of La Reunion, it could experience strong winds and locally heavy rain. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could reach the east coast of Madagascar within 60 hours. Batsirai is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Madagascar.