Tag Archives: Mahanoro

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Nears Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai neared the east coast of Madagascar on Friday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 20.1°S and longitude 50.8°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) east of Mahanoro, Madagascar. Batsirai was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was the equivalent of a major hurricane as it neared the east coast of Madagascar on Friday night. A circular eye was at the center of Batsirai’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Thunderstorms in the northern part of the eyewall weakened in recent hours. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Batsirai was a large tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 225 miles (360 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 23.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.4.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 12 hours. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. The northwestern part of the circulation around Batsirai could pull drier air sinking down the eastern slopes of mountains in Madagascar into the tropical cyclone. Drier air could cause Tropical Cyclone Batsirai to weaken a little before it reaches Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will hit the east coast of Madagascar between Mahanoro and Nosy Varika in 12 hours. Batsirai will bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods especially in regions of steep mountains. Batsirai could also cause a serious storm surge along the coast between Mahanoro and Nosy Varika. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will weaken when it moves inland, but it will continue to drop locally heavy rain over central Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Strengthens East of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai strengthened again east of Madagascar on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 19.5°S and longitude 52.2°E which put it about 210 miles (345 km) east-southeast of Toamasina, Madagascar. Batsirai was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 942 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai intensified again on Friday morning after it completed another eyewall replacement cycle. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was present at the center of Batsirai. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was a large tropical cyclone after several eyewall replacement cycles. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 215 miles (345 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.5.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could intensity during the next 24 hours unless another eyewall replacement cycle starts.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will hit the east coast of Madagascar near Mahanoro in 24 hours. Batsirai is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods especially in regions of steep mountains. Batsirai could also cause a serious storm surge along the coast.