Tag Archives: Nosy Varika

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Hits Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Freddy hit the east coast of Madagascar on Tuesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 20.9°S and longitude 48.8°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northeast of Mananjary, Madagascar. Freddy was moving toward the west-southwest at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy hit the east coast of Madagascar between Nosy Varika and Mananjary on Tuesday. A small eye with a diameter of 7 miles (11 km) was at the center of Freddy’s circulation. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Freddy.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Freddy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 31.5. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally, when Sally hit the south coast of Alabama in 2020. Freddy was capable of causing regional major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move west-southwest across Madagascar during the next 24 hours. The center of Freddy will pass near Fianarantsoa in a few hours. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will bring strong gusty winds to central and southern Madagascar. Freddy will be capable of causing major wind damage. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will also drop locally heavy rain. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will weaken steadily as it moves across Madagascar. The center of Freddy’s circulation will move over the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could strengthen again when it moves over the Mozambique Channel. Freddy could approach the coast of southern Mozambique later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Nears Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Emnati neared the east coast of Madagascar on Tuesday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 20.2°S and longitude 49.9°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) northeast of Manajary, Madagascar. Emnati was moving toward the southwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati weakened as it neared the east coast of Madagascar. A long eyewall replacement cycle was disrupting the inner core of Emnati’s circulation. The inner eyewall was dissipating slowly. The strongest winds were occurring in the larger outer eyewall. A break in the ring of thunderstorms in the northwest side of the outer eyewall was evident on microwave satellite imagery. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the outer eyewall. Storms near the center of Emnati generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The long eyewall replacement cycle produced a large circulation around Tropical Cyclone Emnati. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Emnati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Emnati was 13.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 25.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.6. Tropical Cyclone Emnati was capable of causing widespread serious damage.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Even though Tropical Cyclone Emnati will be in an environment favorable for intensification, the long eyewall replace cycle could cause Emnati to weaken while the inner eyewall fully dissipates. In addition, northwesterly winds blowing around the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Emanti could cause drier air to sink down the eastern side of mountains in Madagascar. The drier air could weaken thunderstorms in the northern part of Emnati’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emnati toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Emanti will reach the east coast of Madagascar in 12 hours. The center of Emnati could make landfall between Nosy Varika and Farafangana. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will be capable of causing widespread serious damage to southern Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will bring strong destructive winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Widespread electrical outages are likely to occur. Emanti will also cause a significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai’s Wind and Rain Reach Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai’s wind and rain reached Madagascar on Saturday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 21.0°S and longitude 48.8°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northeast of Mananjary, Madagascar. Batsirai was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Bands in the western side of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Batsirai brought wind and rain to east central Madagascar on Saturday morning. The center of Batsirai was just east of the coast of Madagascar and the strongest winds were still offshore. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was the equivalent of a major hurricane. An eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was present at the center of Batsirai. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Batsirai’s circulation.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was large. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 225 miles (360 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 22.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.0. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was capable of causing widespread major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will hit the east coast of Madagascar between Nosy Varika and Mananjary during the next 3 hours. Batsirai will bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods especially in regions of steep mountains. Widespread losses of electricity are possible. Batsirai could also cause a serious storm surge along the coast between Nosy Varika and Manajary. The center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could pass close to Fianarantsoa. Batsirai will weaken when it moves inland, but it will continue to drop locally heavy rain over central Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Nears Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai neared the east coast of Madagascar on Friday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 20.1°S and longitude 50.8°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) east of Mahanoro, Madagascar. Batsirai was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was the equivalent of a major hurricane as it neared the east coast of Madagascar on Friday night. A circular eye was at the center of Batsirai’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Thunderstorms in the northern part of the eyewall weakened in recent hours. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Batsirai was a large tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 225 miles (360 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 23.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.4.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 12 hours. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. The northwestern part of the circulation around Batsirai could pull drier air sinking down the eastern slopes of mountains in Madagascar into the tropical cyclone. Drier air could cause Tropical Cyclone Batsirai to weaken a little before it reaches Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will hit the east coast of Madagascar between Mahanoro and Nosy Varika in 12 hours. Batsirai will bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods especially in regions of steep mountains. Batsirai could also cause a serious storm surge along the coast between Mahanoro and Nosy Varika. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will weaken when it moves inland, but it will continue to drop locally heavy rain over central Madagascar.