Tropical Cyclone Emnati neared the east coast of Madagascar on Tuesday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 20.2°S and longitude 49.9°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) northeast of Manajary, Madagascar. Emnati was moving toward the southwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati weakened as it neared the east coast of Madagascar. A long eyewall replacement cycle was disrupting the inner core of Emnati’s circulation. The inner eyewall was dissipating slowly. The strongest winds were occurring in the larger outer eyewall. A break in the ring of thunderstorms in the northwest side of the outer eyewall was evident on microwave satellite imagery. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the outer eyewall. Storms near the center of Emnati generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The long eyewall replacement cycle produced a large circulation around Tropical Cyclone Emnati. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Emnati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Emnati was 13.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 25.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.6. Tropical Cyclone Emnati was capable of causing widespread serious damage.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Even though Tropical Cyclone Emnati will be in an environment favorable for intensification, the long eyewall replace cycle could cause Emnati to weaken while the inner eyewall fully dissipates. In addition, northwesterly winds blowing around the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Emanti could cause drier air to sink down the eastern side of mountains in Madagascar. The drier air could weaken thunderstorms in the northern part of Emnati’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emnati toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Emanti will reach the east coast of Madagascar in 12 hours. The center of Emnati could make landfall between Nosy Varika and Farafangana. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will be capable of causing widespread serious damage to southern Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will bring strong destructive winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Widespread electrical outages are likely to occur. Emanti will also cause a significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Madagascar.