Tag Archives: Cocos Island

Tropical Cyclone Karim Moves Southwest of Cocos Island

Tropical Cyclone Karim moved southwest of Cocos Island on Tuesday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Karim was located at latitude 17.1°S and longitude 92.4°E which put it about 445 miles (725 km) southwest of Cocos Island. Karim was moving toward the south-southeast at 15 m.p.h (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Karim showed signs of weakening as it moved over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Cocos Island on Tuesday morning. The distribution of thunderstorms became asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands south and east of the center of Karim. Bands in the northern and western parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms southeast of the center of circulation were still generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (250 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Karim.

Tropical Cyclone Karim will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Karim will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24˚C. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Karim’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. A combination of colder Sea Surface Temperatures and moderate vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Karim to weaken during the next 48 hours.

The upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will steer Tropical Cyclone Karim toward the southeast during the next 24 hours. When Karim moves over colder water, the thunderstorms will not rise as high in the atmosphere and the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Karim will not be as tall. When the circulation around Karim becomes shorter, it will be steered by winds lower in the atmosphere. The winds lower in the atmosphere could turn Karim back toward the north later this week. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Karim could meander south of Cocos Island while it weakens during the next several days.

Tropical Cyclone Karim Passes West of Cocos Island

Tropical Cyclone Karim passed west of Cocos Island on Monday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Karim was located at latitude 12.8°S and longitude 90.9°E which put it about 410 miles (660 km) west of Cocos Island. Karim was moving toward the south at 8 m.p.h (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Karim strengthened a little as it passed west of Cocos Islands over the South Indian Ocean on Monday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Karim’s circulation and a small eye appeared on microwave satellite imagery. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands southern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Karim. Bands in the northern and eastern parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 145 miles (230 km) from the center of Karim.

Tropical Cyclone Karim will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Karim will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Karim’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit intensification. The wind shear may not be large enough to stop Tropical Cyclone Karim from intensifying and Karim could strengthen a little more during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Karim will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Karim toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Karim will move southwest of Cocos Island during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Karim Strengthens West-northwest of Cocos Island

Tropical Cyclone Karim strengthened over the South Indian Ocean west-northwest of Cocos Island on Sunday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Karim was located at latitude 10.6°S and longitude 90.3°E which put it about 465 miles (750 km) west-northwest of Cocos Island. Karim was moving toward the south at 6 m.p.h (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Karim exhibited much more organization on Sunday morning as it strengthened over the South Indian Ocean. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Karim’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Karim.

Tropical Cyclone Karim will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Karim will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce north-northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Karim’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be large enough to stop Karim from intensifying. Tropical Cyclone Karim is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Karim will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Karim toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Karim will pass west of Cocos Island during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Karim Forms over the South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Karim formed over the South Indian Ocean west-northwest of Cocos Island on Saturday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Karim was located at latitude 8.0°S and longitude 89.6°E which put it about 585 miles (945 km) west-northwest of Cocos Island. Karim was moving toward the southeast at 8 m.p.h (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean west-northwest of Cocos Island strengthened on Saturday morning and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Karim. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Karim’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Karim will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Karim will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce north-northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Karim’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be large enough to stop Karim from intensifying. Tropical Cyclone Karim is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Karim will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Karim toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Karim will pass west of Cocos Island in 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Billy Passes South of Cocos Island

Tropical Cyclone Billy passed south of Cocos Island on Tuesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Billy was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 94.8°E which put it about 385 miles (625 km) south-southwest of Cocos Island. Billy was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Billy maintained its intensity over the South Indian Ocean on Tuesday as it passed south of Cocos Island. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and an elliptical eye was evident on microwave satellite images. A band of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in the southern part of the ring. A band of strong thunderstorms was south of the center of Billy. Bands in the other parts of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Billy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 40 miles (65 km) in the northern half of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Billy will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Billy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. It will move north of an upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean. The trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Billy’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. There will be drier air north and west of Tropical Cyclone Billy. The drier air will also inhibit intensification. A combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air will cause Tropical Cyclone Billy to weaken gradually during the next several days.

Tropical Cyclone Billy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system centered west of Australia. The high pressure system will steer Billy toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Billy will move farther away from Cocos Island.

Tropical Storm Billy Strengthens South-southeast of Cocos Island

Tropical Cyclone Billy strengthened south-southeast of Cocos Island on Monday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Billy was located at latitude 16.8°S and longitude 98.4°E which put it about 330 miles (530 km) south-southeast of Cocos Island. Billy was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean south-southeast of Cocos Island strengthened on Monday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Billy. An eye was apparent on microwave satellite imagery at the center of Tropical Cyclone Billy earlier on Monday, but the eye was gone by later in the afternoon. A partial ring of thunderstorms surrounded the center of Billy’s circulation and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Billy. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of Billy.

Tropical Cyclone Billy will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Billy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear. However, there appears to be drier air north and west of Tropical Cyclone Billy. The drier air seems to have been pulled into the core of Billy’s circulation and it may have contributed to the disappearance of the eye on Monday. The drier air will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Billy could strengthen if more thunderstorms develop around the center of circulation, but the drier air may prevent that from happening.

Tropical Cyclone Billy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system centered west of Australia. The high pressure system will steer Billy toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Billy will pass south of Cocos Island in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Vernon rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean on Friday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vernon was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 90.3°E which put it about 245 miles (725 km) west-southwest of Cocos Island. Vernon was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean west-southwest of Cocos Island on Friday night. A small eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Vernon. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Vernon’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Vernon was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Vernon. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Vernon was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.5.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Vernon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that is west of Australia. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Vernon will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Vernon toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vernon will move farther away from Cocos Island.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Vernon rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vernon was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 92.8°E which put it about 290 miles (465 km) southwest of Cocos Island. Vernon was moving toward the west-southwest at 14 m.p.h (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Cocos Island on Friday morning. A small circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) formed at the center of Vernon’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Vernon. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The circulation around Vernon was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Vernon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that is west of Australia. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Vernon will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Vernon toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vernon will move farther away from Cocos Island.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon Forms Southwest of Cocos Island

Tropical Cyclone Vernon formed over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Cocos Island on Thursday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vernon was located at latitude 13.5°S and longitude 95.3°E which put it about 140 miles (220 km) southwest of Cocos Island. Vernon was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Cocos Island strengthened on Thursday night and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Vernon. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Vernon. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Vernon’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Vernon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that is west of Australia. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Vernon will intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Vernon toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vernon will move farther away from Cocos Island.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai Forms Southwest of Java

Tropical Cyclone Teratai formed over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Java on Wednesday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Teratai was located at latitude 9.3°S and longitude 102.2°E which put it about 375 miles (605 km) southwest of Jakarta, Indonesia. Teratai was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A distinct center of circulation formed in a small low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Java on Wednesday morning and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Teratai. Thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation. Shorts bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Teratai. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Teratai.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next several days. Teratai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge centered north of Australia. The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Teratai’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move into an area where drier air is sinking toward the surface of the ocean. The sinking drier air will inhibit the formation of new thunderstorms. Tropical Cyclone Teratai could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours. However, the effects of the sinking air and vertical wind shear are likely to cause Teratai to weaken later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Teratai toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move farther away from Indonesia. Teratai could move north of Cocos Island later this week.