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Hurricane Felicia and Tropical Storm Guillermo Weaken

Both Hurricane Felicia and Tropical Storm Guillermo weakened on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Felicia was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 132.3°W which put it about 1515 miles (2435 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii. Felicia was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Hurricane Felicia weakened rapidly on Monday morning. Felicia moved over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures was near 26°C. The air over the cooler water was also drier. When the drier air entered the small circulation around Hurricane Felicia, thunderstorms in the eyewall and in the rainbands weakened. The eye at the center of Felicia filled with lower clouds. Many of the bands consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a small area east of the center of circulation. Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Felicia will continue to weaken during the next several days. Felicia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C. It will continue to be an environment where the air is relatively dry, which will inhibit the formation of thunderstorms. An upper level trough near Hawaii will produce southwesterly winds that will blow across the top of Felicia. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear will cause Felicia to weaken faster. Hurricane Felicia could weaken to a tropical depression by Tuesday night.

Hurricane Felicia will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Felicia toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track the remnants of Hurricane Felicia could pass south of Hawaii at the end of the week.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Guillermo also weakened on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 117.8°W which put it about 575 miles (925 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Guillermo was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Hurricane Felicia Churns West, Tropical Storm Guillermo Strengthens

Hurricane Felicia churned toward the west over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Felicia was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 129.0°W which put it about 1330 miles (2140 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Felicia was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Hurricane Felicia weakened gradually on Sunday as it churned westward over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. Even though Felicia was weakening, the circulation around the hurricane remained very well organized. A small circular eye was at the center of Hurricane Felicia. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Felicia. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Felicia was still small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Felicia. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Felicia is 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 6.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 28.3.

Hurricane Felicia will move through an environment that will become less favorable for a strong hurricane during the next 48 hours. Felicia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough near Hawaii will move toward Felicia during the next several days. The trough will produce strong southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Hurricane Felicia in a couple of days. Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear and the shear will cause Felicia to weaken more quickly.

Hurricane Felicia will move south of a subtropical high pressure system during the next few days. The high will steer Felicia toward the west. On its anticipated track Hurricane Felicia will move over the Central Pacific Ocean on Tuesday night.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Guillermo strengthened gradually southwest of Baja California on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 113.8°W which put it about 385 miles (620 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Guillermo was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Guillermo was much larger than the circulation around Hurricane Felicia. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) on the eastern side of Guillermo. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) on the western side of the circulation. Tropical Storm Guillermo is forecast to move toward the west and to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Major Hurricane Felicia Strengthens

Major Hurricane Felicia strengthened on Saturday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Felicia was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 124.6°W which put it about 1120 miles (1800 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Felicia was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Hurricane Felicia intensified on Saturday morning even though the small hurricane began to move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was slightly cooler. A well formed circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Felicia. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms around the core of Felicia generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The circulation around Hurricane Felicia was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (35 km) from the center of Felicia. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Felicia was 29.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.0.

Hurricane Felicia will gradually move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are slightly cooler. Felicia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C during the rest of the weekend. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Felicia will move through an environment capable of supporting a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Felicia will start to weaken when it moves over slightly cooler water. Since the circulation around Hurricane Felicia is very small, Felicia could weaken rapidly when it moves into a less favorable environment.

Hurricane Felicia will move south of a subtropical high pressure system during the next few days. The high will steer Felicia toward the west. On its anticipated track Hurricane Felicia will move toward the Central Pacific Ocean.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Seven-E formed south of Baja California on Saturday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Seven-E was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 109.2°W which put it about 475 miles (680 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California. The tropical depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Storm Douglas Strengthens Quickly

Tropical Storm Douglas strengthened quickly over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was located at latitude 12.4°N and longitude 124.2°W which put it about 2110 miles (3390 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Douglas was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Douglas exhibited much better organization on Tuesday morning.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and eastern sides of the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around around the center of Douglas.  The strongest bands were in the southern half of Tropical Storm Douglas.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Douglas.

Tropical Storm Douglas will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Douglas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Douglas is likely to intensify into a hurricane during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen into a major hurricane later this week.

Tropical Storm Douglas will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high is likely to steer Douglas toward the west-northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Douglas could approach Hawaii by late in the weekend.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Seven-E weakened over cooler water east of Hawaii.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Seven-E was located at latitude 19.3°N and longitude 134.1°W which put it about 1575 miles (2535 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  The depression was moving toward west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

Two Tropical Depressions Form Over Eastern Pacific

Two tropical depressions formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Monday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Seven-E was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 130.3°E which put it about 1345 miles (2170 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  The depression was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 119.8°W which put it about 905 miles (1460 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  The depression was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Depression Seven-E was asymmetrical.  The strongest storms were occurring in bands southwest of the center of circulation.  Bands in other parts of the depression consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The depression was already to moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was near 25°C.  It was moving under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge which was producing northeasterly winds.  Those winds were blowing toward the top of the depression and they were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  Cooler water and wind shear were contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Depression Seven-E is likely to weaken since it will continue to move over cooler water.  The depression will move south of a subtropical high pressure system.  The high will steer the depression toward the west while it weakens.  On its anticipated track the depression will weaken long before it could pose a threat to Hawaii.

The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Depression Eight-E is also asymmetrical.  Many of the strongest storms were occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation.  Some thunderstorms began to develop in bands in the eastern half of the depression on Monday morning.  Storms on the western side of the circulation began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the depression.

Tropical Depression Eight-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will produce northeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the depression.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will have less effect because the depression will be over warmer water.  Tropical Depression Eight-E will strengthen during the next 48 hours and it could intensify into a hurricane.

Tropical Depression Eight-E will move around the southern side of the subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer the depression toward the west during the next few days.  On its anticipated track the depression will move in the general direction of Hawaii.

Tropical Storm Gil Forms Over Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Storm Gil formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Saturday.  A scatterometer onboard a satellite found winds to tropical storm force northeast of the center of former Tropical Depression Eight-E and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Gil.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Gil was located at latitude 15.0°N and longitude 122.4°W which put it about 980 miles (1580 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Gil was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to about 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Gil was asymmetrical.  There was a distinct low level center of circulation which was visible on satellite imagery.  However, the stronger thunderstorms were occurring east of the center of circulation.  Bands in the western half of Gil consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  An upper level trough south of California was producing strong westerly winds which were blowing across the top of the circulation.  The winds were causing strong vertical wind shear and they were contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  Tropical storm force winds were occurring within 80 miles (130 km) of the center of Tropical Storm Gil only in the northeastern quadrant of of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Gil will move through an environment only marginally favorable for intensification.  Gil will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  However, the upper level trough will continue to cause significant vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification of Tropical Storm Gil.  Gil could weaken to a tropical depression if the shear increases.

Tropical Storm Gil will move south of a subtropical ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Gil in a westward direction during the next several days.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Gil will move farther away from Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Central Pacific Ocean, strong vertical wind shear was weakening Tropical Storm Erick and Tropical Storm Flossie.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 163.9°W which put it about 480 miles (770 km) southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii.  Erick was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located at latitude 18.8°N and longitude 144.5°W which put it about 695 miles (1115 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Flossie was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Weakening Tropical Storm Erick Passes South of Hawaii

A weakening Tropical Storm Erick was passing south of Hawaii on Friday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 157.4°W which put it about 310 miles (505 km) south of Honolulu, Hawaii.  Erick was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

An upper level trough northwest of the Hawaii Islands was producing strong southwesterly winds which were blowing across the top of Tropical Storm Erick.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear, which was causing Erick to weaken quickly.  Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands northeast of the center of circulation.  Bands near the center and in other parts of Tropical Storm Erick consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The stronger winds were occurring in the northern half of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

A Flash Flood Watch was in effect for the Big Island of Hawaii through Saturday morning.  Counterclockwise flow around Tropical Storm Erick was producing southeasterly which were blowing up the slopes on the Big Island.  The enhanced rising will also increase rainfall on those slopes and flash floods could occur in some locations.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Flossie was showing signs of strengthening back into a hurricane.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Flossie.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 137.8°W which put it about 1145 miles (1845 km) east of HIlo, Hawaii.  Flossie was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Erick Rapidly Intensifies Into Major Hurricane

Erick rapidly intensified into a major hurricane over the the Central Pacific Ocean during Monday night.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Erick was located at latitude 13.4°N and longitude 142.8°W which put it about 920 miles (1485 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Erick was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

The core of Hurricane Erick intensified rapidly during the overnight hours.  The eye became more circular and distinct on infrared satellite images.  The diameter of the eye was about 12 miles (19 km) on Tuesday morning.  Thunderstorms in the ring around the eye grew taller and the wind speed around the eye increased quickly.  Storms around the core of Erick generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the hurricane.  Multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.

The circulation around Hurricane Erick was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane force were occurring within 25 miles (40 km) of the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) of the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Erick was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.8.

Hurricane Erick will remain in an environment favorable for intensification for about another 24 hours.  Erick will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear during the next day or so.  Hurricane Erick will approach an upper level trough east of Hawaii on Wednesday.  The trough will produce stronger southwesterly winds which will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Erick will start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Erick will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern and Central North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Erick toward the west during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Erick could be south of Hawaii on Thursday night.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Flossie was nearing hurricane strength over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located at latitude 12.2°N and longitude 120.5°W which put it about 1015 mile (1635 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Flossie was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Hurricane Erik and Tropical Storm Flossie Strengthen

Hurricane Erick and Tropical Storm Flossie both moved westward and strengthened over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Erick was located at latitude 12.7°N and longitude 140.0°W which put it about 1110 miles (1790 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Erick was moving west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

The circulation around Hurricane Erick exhibited greater organization on Monday.  A small eye developed at the center of circulation.  The eye was surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms,  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Erick.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

Hurricane Erick will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Erick will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Erick will intensify during the next two days and it could strengthen into a major hurricane.  Eventually, Erick will approach an upper level trough east of Hawaii and the vertical wind shear will increase.

Hurricane Erick will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Erick toward the west. On its anticipated track Hurricane Erick could be southeast of Hawaii on Thursday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Flossie was also intensifying.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 117.8°W which put it about 895 miles (1445 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Flossie was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.  Tropical Storm Flossie is also forecast to move westward and strengthen.

Fabio Strengthens to a Hurricane South of Baja California

Former Tropical Storm Fabio strengthened into a hurricane Monday morning as it moved south of Baja California.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Fabio was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 110.9°W which put it about 700 miles (1125 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Fabio was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The inner core of Hurricane Fabio exhibited signs of greater organization on Monday morning.  Microwave satellite imagery provided evidence of a rainband wrapping around the southern and eastern sides of the center of circulation.  There were intermittent signs that an eye could be forming at the center of circulation.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands south and east of the center of Hurricane Fabio.  The bands north and west of the center were weaker, which may indicate that there was some drier air in those parts of the circulation.  Thunderstorms near the core of Fabio were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane in all directions.

Hurricane Fabio will be moving through an environment that is very favorable for intensification.  Fabio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  It will continue to strengthen and it could intensify rapidly once an eye forms and persists.  Fabio is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane on Tuesday.

Hurricane Fabio is moving south of a subtropical ridge which is steering the hurricane toward the west-northwest.  The west-northwesterly motion is forecast to continue during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Fabio will move away from Baja California.